Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 95.0% to 100.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Rays' Postseason Odds: Live Market Probability
Prediction markets assign a 100.0% chance that the Tampa Bay Rays will reach the 2026 MLB playoffs, a figure that has traded between 41.5% and 89.5% during the life of the contract.
44.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?
Updated · Volume $279.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Atlanta Braves clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Milwaukee Brewers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Boston Red Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 100.0% | +0.0 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Tampa Bay Rays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the New York Yankees clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Chicago Cubs clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 99.3% | +0.4 |
| Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 97.9% | +0.2 |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 97.8% | +2.3 |
| Will the Philadelphia Phillies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 97.6% | -0.5 |
| Will the Chicago White Sox clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 95.0% | +2.5 |
| Will the Texas Rangers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 59.5% | -1.5 |
| Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 44.5% | -2.0 |
| Will the Arizona Diamondbacks clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 4.6% | +2.1 |
| Will the Toronto Blue Jays clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 4.6% | +0.1 |
| Will the Baltimore Orioles clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.7% | -0.9 |
| Will the Seattle Mariners clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.4% | -1.0 |
| Will the Athletics clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the New York Mets clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Minnesota Twins clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will the San Francisco Giants clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Cincinnati Reds clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Detroit Tigers clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | -0.1 |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Pittsburgh Pirates clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Washington Nationals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Miami Marlins clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Colorado Rockies clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Los Angeles Angels clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Kansas City Royals clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Rays are the focal point of this market; other teams' postseason chances are priced at varying but lower probabilities across the board.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 94.2% to 99.4% — a 5.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 20, 2026
Probability rose from 93.9% to 98.8% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 94.4% to 97.2% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 17, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 97.3% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 16, 2026
Probability rose from 94.9% to 97.2% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
The Rays’ postseason probability currently sits at 100.0%. Over the full trading period, the contract has ranged from 41.5% to 89.5%. This market resolves to “Yes” if the Rays officially clinch a postseason berth under Major League Baseball rules. A “No” resolution will occur if the team is eliminated from contention, if the 2026 playoffs are cancelled or postponed past October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if the full 12‑team field is not confirmed by that deadline. Tiebreaker games (including a potential Game 163) are not considered part of the playoffs and do not count for settlement. The resolution source is official MLB information or the team itself, though a consensus of credible reporting can also be used. The contract’s price will be sensitive to the formal resolution conditions: the deadline of October 31, 2026, any official MLB announcements regarding playoff eligibility, and the status of the Rays’ qualification as reported by authoritative sources.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves when the Rays either clinch a playoff spot or are eliminated, or if the playoffs are cancelled or the 12‑team field isn’t set by October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
What counts as making the playoffs?
Officially clinching a spot in the 2026 MLB Playoffs as per MLB rules. Tiebreaker games like a Game 163 are not considered part of the playoffs.
Where does the resolution information come from?
Official MLB sources or the clinching team are primary; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
What happens if the playoffs are delayed?
If the playoffs are postponed to begin after October 31, 2026, or if the full playoff field isn’t confirmed by then, the market resolves to “No”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice