MLS: 2026 Defender of the Year Odds & Probability

The 2026 MLS Defender of the Year award will be handed to the league’s top defensive performer as judged by Major League Soccer. The prediction market asks which player will receive it. Because no single player commands a majority probability, the market points to a competitive award with a broad set of possible winners. Yevhen Cheberko leads the group of named candidates at 38.5%, but that level is only a substantial minority view. Other defenders with similar support include Tristan Blackmon (33.7%), Marcelo Silva (30.5%), Micael (28.1%), Kevin Long (27.8%), Birk Risa (26.5%), and Eddie Segura (26.1%). Each of these players is seen as having a meaningful but not favored chance. The relatively even distribution suggests that the award is genuinely up for grabs. A further set of defenders—Andrew Privett, Carlos Terán, David Brekalo, Joel Waterman, and Lalas Abubakar—are given an outside chance, with probabilities between 17.3% and 16.7%. Collectively, any winner not explicitly named falls into “Other,” which includes the rest of the league. The market resolves according to official MLS rules. In the event of a tie, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of last name. If the 2026 season is cancelled or postponed beyond December 31, 2026 Eastern Time, or if no winner is announced in that timeframe, the market settles on “Other.” Resolution relies on official MLS information or, failing that, a consensus of credible reporting. The deadline is Nov 12, 2026.