Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 59.7% to 62.6% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
MLS 2026 MVP: Odds & Probability
Son Heung-min is a the favored outcome favorite to become Major League Soccer’s 2026 Most Valuable Player, with prediction markets pricing his chances at 69.7%. The odds, updated 14 min ago, reflect a chase pack that remains tightly clustered.
69.7%+4.1 pts 24h
Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player?
Updated · Volume $70.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Lionel Messi win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 69.7% | +4.1 |
| Will Petar Musa win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 11.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Sam Surridge win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 7.4% | -0.6 |
| Will Luis Suárez win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 5.7% | +0.2 |
| Will Evander win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 5.5% | -1.4 |
| Will Emil Forsberg win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 1.9% | -0.2 |
| Will Thomas Müller win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 1.8% | -0.3 |
| Will Philip Zinckernagel win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 1.1% | -0.7 |
| Will Carles Gil win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 1.1% | -0.9 |
| Will Denis Bouanga win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 1.0% | -2.8 |
| Will Son Heung-min win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.9% | -0.5 |
| Will Martin Ojeda win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Diego Luna win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Sergio Busquets win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Anders Dreyer win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dejan Joveljic win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Player J win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player D win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player L win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player B win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player G win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player A win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player H win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player V win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player N win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player X win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player E win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player K win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another player win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player W win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player U win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player F win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player C win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player I win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player M win 2026 MLS Most Valuable Player? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Behind Son, the race is exceptionally tight. Anders Dreyer (11.1%) and Carles Gil (7.4%) are both rated unlikely, while Thomas Müller (5.7%), Dejan Joveljic (5.5%), Luis Suárez (1.9%), and Evander (1.8%) all sit close behind as unlikely contenders. Lionel Messi (1.1%) and Philip Zinckernagel (1.1%) are seen as effectively ruled out to claim the award, with a handful of other names priced at negligible odds.
Context
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 59.7% to 61.2% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 45.1% to 56.0% — a 10.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 40.0% to 41.3% — a 1.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 1.7% to 40.6% — a 38.9-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 21.6% to 34.8% — a 13.2-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 3.8% to 38.9% — a 35.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 4.2% to 32.4% — a 28.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 21.6% to 33.6% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 14.6% to 41.6% — a 27.0-point move over the past day.
Son Heung-min sits atop the betting for the 2026 MLS Landon Donovan MVP, though his 69.7% implied probability is far from a lock. That level makes him the the favored outcome frontrunner in an unusually open field, where several rivals are rated nearly as likely. The market resolves strictly to the official MVP winner as declared by Major League Soccer. If multiple winners are announced, the player whose surname comes first alphabetically takes the market. Should the 2026 season be cancelled or no winner be named by December 31, 2026, all contracts settle on “Other.” The resolution source is official MLS information, with a consensus of credible reporting used if necessary. Son’s odds have ranged from 21.1% to 72.3% during trading. Total volume on the contract stands at $70.7K. The market remains active as the season progresses.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Landon Donovan MVP award, as announced by official Major League Soccer channels or a consensus of credible reporting.
What happens if there is a tie?
If multiple winners are declared by MLS, the market resolves to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.
What if the 2026 season is cancelled or postponed?
If the season is cancelled, postponed beyond December 31, 2026 ET, or no winner is declared by that date, the market resolves to “Other.”
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is official information from Major League Soccer, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official details are unclear.
When will the market resolve?
The market is expected to resolve around Jan 1, 2027. It closes once the 2026 MLS MVP is officially announced, or by the end of 2026 if no winner is crowned.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice