Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 17.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Natural Disaster in 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets now see a unlikely chance — 16.0% — that 2026 brings a Category 5 hurricane landing in the US, a 10kt meteor, a VEI≥6 volcano, or an 8.5+ earthquake.
16.0%-1.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $246.9K
The Yes outcome commands the market's attention; all other scenarios are bundled into the No side.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability fell from 20.5% to 18.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 21.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 21.5% to 19.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 10, 2026
Probability fell from 37.5% to 26.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability fell from 39.5% to 28.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 25.5% to 42.5% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 15.0% to 24.0% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability rose from 14.0% to 59.5% — a 45.5-point move over the past day.
The probability sits at 16.0%. The market resolves to Yes if any of four specified disasters occur in 2026 Eastern Time: a Category 5 hurricane making landfall in the United States; a meteor strike with an energy of at least 10 kilotons; a volcanic eruption rated VEI 6 or higher; or an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 or greater. If none of these events happen, the outcome is No. Should official data remain unavailable at year-end, settlement can be deferred until Mar 1, 2027. Because the market resolves on actual events, the probability can change only as new information about those four triggers appears — or as the year elapses without an event.
FAQ
What exactly triggers a Yes outcome?
Any one of four events during 2026 ET: a Cat 5 US hurricane landfall, a 10kt+ meteor strike, a VEI≥6 volcanic eruption, or an 8.5+ earthquake.
How is a Category 5 hurricane determined?
The market does not specify a definition beyond 'Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US.' Standard meteorological classification, such as the Saffir-Simpson scale, would likely apply.
What does VEI ≥6 mean for a volcano?
VEI is the Volcanic Explosivity Index. An eruption of magnitude 6 or higher is considered 'colossal.'
When will the market settle?
Normally it resolves shortly after 2026 ends. If official data is outstanding, the deadline extends to Mar 1, 2027.
What happens if a disaster falls just short of the criteria?
If none of the four precise thresholds are met, the market resolves to No. Near-misses do not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice