Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 95.8% to 85.5% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
Kawhi Leonard Next Team: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a 88.0% chance that Kawhi Leonard will join the Toronto Raptors for the 2026-27 season. An official announcement before the close date would settle the bet immediately.
50.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Kawhi play for Team A in 2026-27?
Updated · Volume $320.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Kawhi play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? | 88.0% | +3.9 |
| Will Kawhi play for Team A in 2026-27? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for another team in 2026-27? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for Team B in 2026-27? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Clippers in 2026-27? | 4.4% | +0.1 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Orlando Magic in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Phoenix Suns in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Portland Trail Blazers in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the New York Knicks in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Charlotte Hornets in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Detroit Pistons in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Utah Jazz in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Memphis Grizzlies in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Dallas Mavericks in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Brooklyn Nets in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Washington Wizards in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Chicago Bulls in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Atlanta Hawks in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Denver Nuggets in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kawhi play for the Indiana Pacers in 2026-27? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The Toronto Raptors are strongly favored to be Kawhi Leonard's next team, while the odds for other possible destinations are finely balanced.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 95.8% to 93.7% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 96.1% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 86.4% to 96.4% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Around this time: NBA fines Clippers $30m, suspends several executives in Kawhi Leonard probe — Al Jazeera
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 88.4% to 96.2% — a 7.8-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 91.4% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability rose from 80.5% to 90.8% — a 10.3-point move over the past day.
Around this time: NBA blasts ESPN for ‘inaccuracies’ in report on Kawhi Leonard-Clippers investigation — The Guardian US
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 83.5% to 93.5% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 79.7% to 83.5% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 15, 2026
Probability rose from 78.9% to 81.8% — a 2.8-point move over the past day.
The market probability for Leonard returning to Toronto stands at 88.0%. This market resolves when Kawhi Leonard officially joins a new team. If he remains with the Los Angeles Clippers through the close, it defaults to 'Los Angeles Clippers'. A move to an unlisted squad or retirement results in 'Other'. Official announcements from the Clippers or an acquiring team trigger immediate settlement. In their absence, consensus credible media reporting may be used to determine the outcome. Two formal levers can move the price. An official statement on Leonard's plans—a signing, a trade, or a confirmation he is staying—will settle the market. The market also has a fixed close date; if that passes without a trigger, it resolves to the Clippers. In the run-up, credible reports that fall short of an official announcement may still cause the line to shift as traders update their views.
FAQ
How is the market resolved?
It resolves to the official team Kawhi Leonard joins by the close date. No new team means it resolves to the Los Angeles Clippers. Retirement or unlisted teams resolve as "Other".
What sources determine the outcome?
Official announcements from teams, or consensus credible media reports if no official statement is made.
Can the market resolve early?
Yes. An official announcement before the deadline settles the market immediately.
What happens if he joins a team not listed among the options?
The market resolves to "Other" in that case.
What if he retires?
That also results in an "Other" resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice