Sep 21, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 22.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
New COVID Variant of Concern Before 2027: Live Market Odds
Markets price the chance of a new CDC-designated variant of concern before 2027 at 22.0%, making such an event a substantial minority view. The window opens in December 2025 and closes on the last day of 2026.
22.0%-0.5 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $246.0K
The “No” outcome dominates trading, with a “Yes” resolution remaining a substantial minority view.
Context
Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 19.5% to 23.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 7.5% to 20.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 7.5% to 18.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 8.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 7.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 6.5% to 4.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 8.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 9.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 18.5% to 6.5% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
The probability has remained in a narrow range, currently at 22.0%. Over its trading life, it has touched a low of 7.0% and a high of 23.5%. A Yes resolution requires the CDC to officially classify a new SARS-CoV-2 variant as a variant of concern at any point between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Eastern Time. The determination rests on the agency's published classification scheme, and the outcome is sourced from the CDC's official announcements. If no such variant is designated during that period, the market settles to No. The market's price is bound by the calendar: the hard stop of Jan 1, 2027 means the value will steadily decay as time runs out without a designation. Any indication that the CDC is reviewing a new lineage—especially one with evidence of higher transmissibility, immune escape, or increased severity—could nudge the probability upward. Routine variant monitoring updates and the agency's weekly surveillance reports are the most direct inputs.
FAQ
What qualifies as a “variant of concern”?
The CDC defines it based on factors such as increased transmissibility, more severe disease, or significant reduction in the effectiveness of current countermeasures. The detailed criteria are published on the CDC’s website.
When does the market’s observation window close?
The window ends on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Any variant designated after that moment does not count.
What if a variant is first identified before December 2025 but designated later?
Only the date of official CDC designation matters. If the agency classifies it as a new variant of concern during the specified window, it resolves Yes; otherwise, No.
How is the outcome verified?
Resolution is based solely on official CDC communications. The market uses the agency’s variant classification list as the definitive source.
Does a variant of interest count?
No. The market hinges specifically on the higher “variant of concern” label. A variant of interest does not trigger a Yes resolution.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice