Jul 31, 2026
Probability fell from 38.5% to 5.0% — a 33.5-point move over the past day.
Gemini Reasoning Flagship Release Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026 at 1.1%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $323.8K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by July 31, 2026? | 1.1% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 15, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 8, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 38.0% to 5.0% — a 33.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 39.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 46.0% to 36.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 37.0% to 42.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 38.0% to 42.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 7.0% to 37.5% — a 30.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 7.0% to 42.0% — a 35.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability fell from 36.5% to 7.0% — a 29.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 40.5% to 36.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice