Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 4.5% to 6.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
New Pandemic in 2026? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of a new pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in 2026 at 5.5%, an unlikely prospect. The market hinges on any official WHO declaration between January 1 and December 31, 2026.
5.5%0.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $1.1M
Across platforms
0.5 pt spread- Polymarket5.5%
- Kalshi5.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
The market's attention centers on the unlikely prospect of a new pandemic; the alternative—no declaration—is overwhelmingly favored.
Context
The probability has idled at 5.5%, firmly in unlikely territory. Trading has been thin, with few sharp moves, leaving the price anchored near its current level. The contract resolves to "Yes" if, at any point between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the WHO formally declares a disease a pandemic. A "No" resolution applies if no such declaration occurs during that window. Settlement relies solely on official WHO announcements. Any change in the WHO's posture toward a potential pandemic changes what traders must weigh. The clock runs through Jan 1, 2027; once the observation window shuts, no later declarations count. Statements, emergency committee meetings, or disease alerts from the WHO are the only formal inputs that could move the number.
FAQ
What exactly triggers a "Yes" resolution?
The World Health Organization must officially declare any disease a pandemic within the calendar year 2026, Eastern Time. A declaration before January 1 or after December 31, 2026, does not count.
Does the disease have to be entirely new?
The description does not require the disease itself to be novel. The market resolves on the act of a pandemic declaration for any disease, new or known.
How is the market settled?
Settlement is based on official announcements from the WHO. If the WHO declares a pandemic during the eligible window, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice