Jul 25, 2026
Probability fell from 51.5% to 13.0% — a 38.5-point move over the past day.
New Stranger Things Episode by Dec 31: Market Odds
Prediction markets give a new Stranger Things episode arriving on Netflix by the end of December a 8.0% probability, a scenario seen as unlikely.
8.0%+0.5 pts 24h
New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027?
Updated · Volume $30.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31, 2027? | 8.0% | +0.5 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? | 3.5% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by April 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by February 28? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 15? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The ‘by December 31’ outcome captures the bulk of trading interest; the other ten scenarios—covering different release windows or alternative conditions—are all long shots.
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 50.5% to 14.0% — a 36.5-point move over the past day.
Trading in this contract has been subdued, with the chance of a new episode by the turn of the year sitting at 8.0% as of 3 min ago. Over the last day, the contract slipped +0.5 pts. The market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if Netflix releases a new episode of Stranger Things—one not previously available to stream—between the market’s creation and Apr 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. To count, the episode must appear as a distinct, numbered or titled entry on the show’s Netflix page and be playable for general U.S. subscribers. Behind‑the‑scenes features, trailers, recaps, cast interviews, deleted scenes, and alternate cuts are excluded unless Netflix presents them as official episodes. If the episode list on Netflix is ambiguous, the resolution may also rely on a consensus of credible reporting. Traders weigh the likelihood of a release in the calendar year, with the market’s ultimate resolution tied to Netflix’s episode roster as of Apr 1, 2027. Any concrete production update or scheduling leak before year‑end could recalibrate the odds.
FAQ
What counts as a new episode of Stranger Things?
An episode must be newly released on Netflix (not previously available to stream) and listed as a distinct, numbered or titled episode on the show’s page. It must be playable for general U.S. subscribers.
Would a behind-the-scenes special or documentary qualify?
No. Featurettes, documentaries, trailers, recaps, cast interviews, deleted scenes, and similar bonus content do not count unless Netflix clearly presents them as official episodes of the series.
How is the resolution verified?
The primary source is the Stranger Things title page on Netflix, specifically the episode list and availability. A consensus of credible reporting can also be used if the Netflix listing is ambiguous.
Does the episode have to be released in the U.S.?
Yes. The episode must be playable for general subscribers in the United States. The market does not consider regional exclusives that are unavailable to U.S. audiences.
What happens if Netflix releases an extended cut of an old episode?
An alternate cut, extended cut, or ‘secret’ version of an already‑released episode will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix’s platform.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice