Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 60.5% to 100.0% — a 39.5-point move over the past day.
Next Claude Opus Release: Live Probability & Odds
Markets price the probability that Anthropic delivers a new Claude Opus model to the public before the resolution cutoff at 100.0%, a near-certain assessment that reflects an expectation the release will be broadly accessible rather than limited to a private group.
100.0%
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.3M
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 29, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by October 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 17, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 16, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The headline deadline is seen as near-certain; all earlier cutoff dates are rated sharply lower, with only distant targets attracting comparable confidence.
Context
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 42.0% to 100.0% — a 58.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 94.0% to 99.9% — a 5.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 23, 2026
Probability rose from 94.7% to 99.2% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
The probability has held at extreme highs with only trivial noise. The line is nearly static at the upper boundary. To settle to 'Yes,' Anthropic must officially name its next model 'Opus' and make it accessible to the general public before the target date. Private test phases, invite-only betas, or incidental website labels do not qualify. The public must be able to sign up or use the model without special permission. The primary resolution source is official Anthropic statements, supplemented by credible journalism as a check. The approaching deadline of Dec 31, 2026 is the central constraint: any formal, public launch of a qualifying Opus model before then would resolve the market affirmatively. A lack of announcements, or official word that Opus is delayed beyond the cutoff or rebranded under a different name, would push the probability downward. Because verification depends on Anthropic’s own disclosures and independent reporting, unconfirmed leaks are unlikely to settle the market on their own.
FAQ
What counts as a public release for this market?
A public release means the model is openly accessible to the general public, either through a direct launch or an open waiting list that anyone can join. A closed beta or invite-only test does not satisfy the condition.
How is the model name verified?
The model must be explicitly and officially named 'Opus' by Anthropic. Variants like 'Claude Opus 4.9' or simply 'Opus 5' qualify, but models branded only as Sonnet, Haiku, or other names do not, unless they include the Opus label.
What is the primary source for resolution?
Official information from Anthropic is the main source. This is cross-checked against a consensus of credible reporting to confirm that the release meets the specified criteria.
Does a model appearing on Anthropic's website count?
Only if it is actually accessible to the general public. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names that do not correspond to a usable model will not trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
What happens if the release occurs after the deadline?
The market resolves to 'No' if the qualifying Opus model is not made publicly available by the specified date. Partial releases or announcements after the cutoff do not count.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice