Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 94.9% to 99.7% — a 4.8-point move over the past day.
Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut? - Odds & Probability
Prediction markets see a 100.0% near-certain chance that the next Claude Opus model entering the Arena.AI Leaderboard achieves a debut score of at least 1470. The market resolves based on the score in the Text Arena Overall leaderboard at a specific time after the model’s first appearance.
99.5%
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $226.4K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1470 by December 31, 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? | 99.5% | — |
| Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? | 0.3% | — |
The headline outcome of a debut score of at least 1470 is priced at a near-certain level, and the 1480, 1490, and 1500 thresholds are all similarly near-certain. A score of 1510 is seen as unlikely, while the remaining scenario is a long shot.
Context
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 71.5% to 99.5% — a 28.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 52.0% to 99.5% — a 47.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 98.6% — a 19.6-point move over the past day.
Trajectory: The probability currently sits at 100.0%, with a range over the period. Trading volume totals $226.4K. Resolution & rules: The market settles “Yes” if the next Claude Opus model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard has a score of at least 1470 at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date after its first appearance. Only models explicitly labeled “Opus” qualify—Sonnet, Haiku, or other variants do not. The score is taken from the “Score” column under the “Text Arena | Overall” tab with style control off. If multiple Opus models debut on the same date, the highest-scoring one determines the resolution. If the leaderboard is unavailable at the required time, the first subsequent available score within seven days is used; otherwise, the market resolves “No.” The market also resolves “No” if no qualifying model appears by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. What would move the number: The primary trigger is the appearance of a new Claude Opus model on the leaderboard, or the absence thereof. Any news around upcoming model releases could shift the probability. The hard deadline of Dec 31, 2026 also plays a role, as the market must resolve by then.
FAQ
What qualifies as a 'Claude Opus' model?
Any model newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard that is explicitly labeled as 'Opus' qualifies. Models labeled as Sonnet, Haiku, or other variants do not. The model may have been released previously; the trigger is its first appearance on the leaderboard.
How is the score determined for resolution?
The score is taken from the 'Score' column under the 'Text Arena | Overall' tab on the Arena.AI Leaderboard, with style control turned off. The value at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the model's first appearance is used, regardless of any underlying granular data.
What happens if multiple Opus models debut on the same day?
If several Opus models appear on the leaderboard on the same calendar date (Eastern Time), the highest score among them is used for settlement. Only models from that first date are considered.
When does the market resolve?
The market resolves after a qualifying model appears and its score is recorded at the specified time. If no qualifying model appears by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, it resolves to 'No'. If the resolution source is temporarily unavailable, the market waits up to seven days for a valid score.
Does the model have to be officially released or publicly available?
No, the model's release status or public accessibility prior to its leaderboard debut does not matter. The only requirement is that it is newly added to the leaderboard and labeled as Opus.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice