Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 94.4% to 84.0% — a 10.4-point move over the past day.
Next Gemini Pro Arena Debut: Score Threshold Odds
Markets price the chance that the next Gemini Pro model added to the Arena.AI leaderboard debuts at a score of at least 1480 at 90.5%, reflecting strongly favored.
57.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
Updated · Volume $172.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? | 90.5% | -1.0 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? | 88.3% | +0.0 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495? | 75.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? | 57.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? | 22.9% | -0.2 |
The threshold of 1480 is strongly favored, with higher score bars becoming progressively less likely.
Context
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 94.5% to 82.2% — a 12.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 73.5% to 81.3% — a 7.8-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability rose from 76.5% to 84.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 90.0% to 76.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 96.4% to 93.5% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 90.7% to 96.2% — a 5.4-point move over the past day.
The headline probability has settled at 90.5%. Over its trading life it has ranged from 31.5% to 83.0%. The contract shifted 0.0 pts over the last day. The market resolves on the next Google Gemini Pro model newly added to the Arena.AI leaderboard. A model qualifies only if it carries a “Pro” label—Flash, Flash-Lite, or other non-Pro variants are ignored. The score is taken straight from the “Score” column under the “Text Arena | Overall” tab at arena.ai, with style control off, at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar day after the model first appears. If multiple Pro models land on the same calendar day, the highest-scoring one is used. When the leaderboard is unavailable at the designated time, resolution is deferred to the next available reading within seven days. Should no qualifying model debut by the market’s deadline, or if the source stays out of reach, the contract settles as No. What could shift the odds is straightforward. A new Pro model appearing on the leaderboard before the final cutoff—or a prolonged wait without one—directly affects the perceived likelihood of hitting the 1480 bar. The resolution clock starts ticking the moment that model shows up. If the source is inaccessible at the 12:00 PM check, the market waits up to seven days; if it remains unavailable, the contract resolves to No.
FAQ
What counts as a “Gemini Pro” model?
Any Google Gemini model newly added to the Arena.AI leaderboard and labeled as “Pro” qualifies. Models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant do not count.
How is the score determined?
The score is taken directly from the “Score” column under the “Text Arena | Overall” tab on the leaderboard, with style control off, at 12:00 PM ET on the day after the model first appears.
What if several models are added on the same day?
If multiple qualifying models are added on the same calendar day, the highest-scoring one is used for resolution.
What happens if the leaderboard is inaccessible?
If the score is unavailable at the specified time, the market waits for the next available reading within seven days. If it remains unavailable through that period, the market resolves to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice