Sep 12, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 72.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden at 65.5%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of SwedenEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $5.8M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 65.5% | -7.0 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 34.5% | +7.0 |
| Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.7% | +0.2 |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another candidate be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Context
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 82.5% to 76.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 83.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 78.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 81.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 78.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability fell from 87.5% to 78.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice