Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Odds & Probability
Markets price Magdalena Andersson's chances of returning as Prime Minister at 86.5%. Sweden's parliamentary election must be held by September 13, 2026, with a new government expected to form shortly after.
86.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Updated · Volume $4.3M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 86.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 12.5% | -2.0 |
| Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another candidate be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Magdalena Andersson is the clear frontrunner, while Ulf Kristersson is seen as unlikely and the remaining candidates are all long shots.
Context
Jul 26, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 79.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
The price for Andersson has traded at 86.5% recently, within a range from 81.5% to 93.5% over the period. It has moved +2.0 pts in the past day. The market resolves to the individual officially appointed as Prime Minister following the 2026 election, provided they assume office. Interim or caretaker leaders do not count. If no new Prime Minister is in place by June 30, 2027, the market settles to 'Other'. The resolution source is official information from the Government of Sweden or a consensus of credible reporting. The scheduled election is September 13, 2026. A new Prime Minister must assume office by June 30, 2027, to avoid resolution to 'Other'. The resolution depends on Swedish government announcements or consensus reporting.
FAQ
When does this market resolve?
It resolves after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election once a new Prime Minister officially assumes office. If no one does by June 30, 2027, it resolves to 'Other'.
What happens if the Prime Minister is interim or acting?
Interim or caretaker Prime Ministers are not considered for resolution. Only a permanent appointment following the election counts.
What is the resolution source?
The primary source is official information from the Government of Sweden. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if needed.
What is the deadline for a new Prime Minister to take office?
The deadline is June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. If no permanent appointment has occurred by then, the market resolves to 'Other'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice