Next Prime Minister of Sweden: Market Prices
As Sweden heads toward its next parliamentary election, markets price in a 80.0% chance that Magdalena Andersson will reclaim the premiership—a strongly favored position. Voters go to the polls on September 13, 2026.
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
Updated · Volume $3.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 80.0% | -1.0 |
| Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 17.5% | +5.5 |
| Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Simona Mohamsson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anna-Karin Hatt be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Amanda Lind be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another candidate be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | 0.0% | — |
Magdalena Andersson remains the market’s strong favorite, while Ulf Kristersson carries an outside chance and all other named candidates are considered long shots.
Context
Markets have priced Andersson between 72.5% and 81.5% throughout the contract’s life, with the current figure at 80.0%—a level that has kept her in strong territory. Resolution depends on who is officially appointed and takes office as prime minister after the election. Interim or caretaker leaders are explicitly excluded from settlement. The market uses official Swedish government sources; if those are unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting can be used. The fixed election date of September 13, 2026, is the primary scheduled trigger. Subsequent government formation and the formal assumption of office will then determine the outcome. A longstop date of Sep 13, 2026 applies: if no prime minister has taken office by then, the contract resolves to "Other".
FAQ
How does this market decide the winner?
It resolves to the individual officially appointed and assuming office as prime minister after the next parliamentary election. Interim or caretaker prime ministers are not counted.
What if no prime minister is appointed by the deadline?
The market has a longstop date (June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). If no one has taken office by then, the contract resolves to 'Other'.
Are interim or caretaker prime ministers eligible?
No. Only a formal appointment and assumption of office after the election counts; interim or caretaker periods are excluded.
What sources are used for resolution?
The primary source is official information from the Government of Sweden, but a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice