Sep 19, 2026
Probability rose from 38.0% to 45.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Ángela Aguilar & Christian Nodal split in 2026?: Odds & Probability
Markets price the likelihood of Ángela Aguilar and Christian Nodal announcing a split by December 31, 2026 at 39.5%. The resolution turns on any public statement of intent to separate, regardless of whether a legal divorce later occurs.
39.5%-2.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $38.3K
The 'Yes' outcome is a substantial minority view; the 'No' outcome is the prevailing expectation.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 43.0% to 38.0% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 40.0% to 50.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 43.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 33.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 5, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 37.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 41.5% to 39.0% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 44.5% to 38.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 47.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 39.0% to 41.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
The probability now stands at 39.5%. It has traded between 26.5% and 54.5% over the lifetime of the market. The market resolves to "Yes" if Ángela Aguilar and/or Christian Nodal announce their intention to legally separate or divorce between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. An announcement of intent is sufficient, even if a formal divorce never materializes or occurs later. The resolution source will be statements from the couple or their representatives, though a consensus of credible media reporting may also be considered. The market remains open until Jan 1, 2027, so the probability could shift as new information emerges about the couple's relationship. The resolution hinges on whether a qualifying announcement is made before the deadline.
FAQ
What exactly counts as an announcement for this market?
Any public statement from Ángela Aguilar, Christian Nodal, or their representatives indicating an intention to separate or divorce. This could be a social media post, press release, or interview.
Does a formal divorce need to be finalized?
No. The market resolves 'Yes' upon an announcement of the intention to separate or divorce. The actual legal process is not required to conclude.
When does this market end?
The market resolution deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Any announcement made before that time qualifies.
What if the couple never makes a formal announcement but credible media report a split?
The primary resolution source is statements from the couple or their representatives. However, the market terms allow for a definitive consensus of credible media reporting to be considered in some cases.
Is the market specific to 2026?
Yes, only announcements made in the timeframe from market creation up to the end of 2026 are considered. Later announcements would not trigger a 'Yes'.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice