Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 22.5% to 18.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
AGI by 2027: Market Odds
Prediction markets see a unlikely 17.5% chance of OpenAI announcing artificial general intelligence before 2027. The binary contract resolves to ‘Yes’ if an official announcement is made by December 31, 2026.
17.5%+3.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $271.8K
The market treats an AGI announcement as unlikely, with the alternate outcome—no announcement—commanding the overwhelming share of probability.
Context
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 18.5% to 23.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 25.0% to 18.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability fell from 27.5% to 19.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 19.0% to 26.5% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 19.0% — a 1.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 7.5% to 18.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Confidence in an early AGI announcement has been muted, with the market languishing near 17.5%. The price has oscillated between 7.5% and 34.5% over its life. Over the last day, the price moved +3.0 pts. Trading volume stands at $271.8K. Resolution hinges on a single test: an official statement from OpenAI, or its representatives, that AGI has been achieved, delivered before December 31, 2026 ET. Failing that, the market settles to ‘No’. The primary source is OpenAI’s own communication, but the terms allow for a consensus of credible reporting to substitute if official word is ambiguous or absent. The binary structure leaves no room for partial credit; a qualified claim or near-miss does not count. Only an unambiguous assertion of AGI triggers ‘Yes’. What could disrupt the calm is any signal that OpenAI is on the cusp—an unexpected press conference, a leaked internal memo reported by major outlets, or a subtle change in executive language. Because credible reporting can serve as a resolution source, the market is sensitive to journalistic investigations that uncover evidence of AGI. The drop-dead date of Jan 1, 2027 sets the outer limit; if that passes without announcement, the ‘No’ side wins by default.
FAQ
What counts as an ‘official announcement’?
Any statement from OpenAI or an official representative asserting that the company has created artificial general intelligence.
Who qualifies as an official representative?
The market does not specify titles, but typically includes executives, spokespersons, or verified company communications.
How is AGI defined for this market?
There is no technical definition. The market relies on OpenAI’s own use of the term in an announcement.
What role does credible reporting play?
If OpenAI makes no official announcement, but a consensus of credible reporting confirms that AGI has been achieved and effectively announced, the market can still resolve to ‘Yes’.
When will the market resolve?
It will resolve after the deadline on December 31, 2026 ET, or sooner if an announcement is made.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice