Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 75.6% to 95.5% — a 19.9-point move over the past day.
Precipitation in NYC in July: Market Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in JulyEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $49.3K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in July? | 100.0% | — |
| Will NYC have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in July? | 0.0% | — |
| Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 45.4% to 90.8% — a 45.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 30.6% to 72.7% — a 42.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 25.1% to 51.8% — a 26.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 29, 2026
Probability rose from 35.5% to 45.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 19.3% to 62.1% — a 42.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 49.0% to 35.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability fell from 41.8% to 38.0% — a 3.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 33.5% to 58.0% — a 24.5-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice