Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 23.5% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
Pro Football: 2026 MVP Winner Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give Josh Allen 27.5% to win the 2026 NFL MVP, making him an a substantial minority view candidate. No other player comes close, keeping the race wide open at this early stage.
27.5%+2.0 pts 24h
Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Updated · Volume $1.0M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 27.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 15.6% | +11.0 |
| Will Lamar Jackson win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 9.0% | -2.5 |
| Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 7.1% | +3.6 |
| Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 7.0% | +1.7 |
| Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 5.5% | -7.8 |
| Will Trevor Lawrence win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 5.3% | +0.7 |
| Will Justin Herbert win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 3.0% | -0.6 |
| Will Jalen Hurts win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 2.8% | +0.5 |
| Will Dak Prescott win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 2.5% | -0.2 |
| Will Drake Maye win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Matthew Stafford win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 2.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Jordan Love win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 2.0% | +0.2 |
| Will Jaxson Dart win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 2.0% | +0.7 |
| Will Jared Goff win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 1.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Bo Nix win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 1.1% | -0.5 |
| Will Jahmyr Gibbs win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.9% | +0.4 |
| Will Baker Mayfield win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Jaxson Smith-Njigba win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Sam Darnold win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Derrick Henry win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Justin Jefferson win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Christian McCaffrey win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Saquon Barkley win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Ja'Marr Chase win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | +0.1 |
| Will De'Von Achane win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bijan Robinson win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Puka Nacua win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Myles Garrett win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Player M win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player K win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player R win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player O win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player T win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player L win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player P win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player S win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player Q win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Player N win the 2026 NFL MVP? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Josh Allen is the lone outcome with any noticeable support, although his a substantial minority view probability underscores how uncertain the market remains. Every other participant sits at a rounding error, leaving the race effectively shapeless this far from kickoff.
Context
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 15.5% to 21.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 16.8% to 21.3% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 13, 2026
Probability rose from 6.7% to 18.1% — a 11.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 46.0% — a 46.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 47.0% — a 47.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 0.0% to 50.0% — a 50.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 26, 2026
Probability rose from 2.8% to 15.1% — a 12.3-point move over the past day.
This market resolves to the official winner of the 2026 NFL MVP award for the 2026-27 season. If the vote ends in a tie, it follows the NFL’s designated winner; should multiple players share the honor, the market settles on the one whose last name appears first alphabetically. Resolution draws on official league information or, absent that, a consensus of credible reporting. The contract carries a hard deadline: if no winner is declared by February 28, 2027—whether through cancellation, postponement, or any other cause—it resolves to “Other.”
As of 1 min ago, the market has handled $1.0M in trading volume. Josh Allen’s likelihood sits at 27.5%, which markets characterize as a substantial minority view. The remaining candidates barely register a pulse. Every other player trades at a negligible probability, pointing to a race without a clear favorite. This diffusion is common so far ahead of the season, before training camps and regular-season storylines begin to sort contenders from pretenders. NFL MVP markets typically gain shape only once the season is underway and a handful of performances start to stand out.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It settles on the player officially named the 2026 NFL MVP for the 2026-27 season. The resolution source is the NFL’s official announcement, though a consensus of credible reporting may be used if that is unavailable.
What happens if there is a tie or multiple winners?
If the award is tied, the market uses the winner as determined by NFL rules. If more than one player is declared MVP, it resolves to the one whose last name comes first alphabetically.
When will the market be resolved?
It will resolve by Feb 15, 2027 at the latest. If the season is cancelled or delayed beyond that date, or no winner is declared, the market resolves to “Other.”
Who is currently the most likely MVP?
No one is a strong favorite. Josh Allen has the highest probability at 27.5%, which is a substantial minority view. The rest of the field trades at barely visible levels.
What does the probability distribution tell us?
It suggests that the market sees no obvious frontrunner. The award is wide open, with the eventual winner likely to emerge later in the season once on-field results crystallize.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice