Quebec General Election Winner: Odds & Probability

Quebecers go to the polls on October 5, 2026, to elect all 125 members of the National Assembly. The party that wins the most seats will have the first opportunity to form a government, though a majority requires 63 seats. This prediction market asks which party will capture the largest number of seats, irrespective of whether it achieves a majority. As of the latest data, the Parti Québécois holds the favoured position, with markets pricing its chances at 72.5%. That translates to a the favored outcome scenario. The Parti libéral du Québec, which held power for much of the early 21st century, is given a 14.5% probability—an outside chance—while the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec stands at 14.5%, also in the unlikely category. Trading activity on this contract has generated $658.3K in total volume, indicating consistent market participation. The lifetime range for the contract spans from 54.5% to 74.0%. The market’s resolution rules are explicit. The outcome is based on the number of seats won, not on who forms the government. A tie in seats is broken by total valid votes; a further tie goes to alphabetical order of the party’s abbreviation. The election must be held by January 31, 2027. If voting is delayed past that date, the market resolves to “Other,” capturing any scenario outside the listed parties. The current pricing implies that traders see a considerable gap between the PQ and its rivals. The remaining nine outcomes—covering minor parties and independents—are all long shots, with negligible probabilities. This distribution suggests a market conviction that the next National Assembly will be led by one of the three major parties, with a strong lean toward the sovereigntist option. These odds are drawn from prediction markets and reflect the collective judgment of participants as of 8 min ago. They are not polls but market-based forecasts that incorporate all available information, including polling data, economic indicators, and political developments.