Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 74.0% to 81.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Quebec General Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election at 79.0%.
79.0%+4.5 pts 24h
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
Updated · Volume $928.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 79.0% | +4.5 |
| Will Coalition Avenir Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 15.5% | -6.0 |
| Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 3.2% | +1.4 |
| Will Parti conservateur du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.2% | 0.0 |
| Will Québec solidaire win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.9% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 60.0% to 71.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 72.5% to 61.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 70.5% to 58.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 33 tracked outcomes and $928.1K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election, is priced at 79.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice