Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections at 28.0%.
28.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Updated · Volume $265.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 28.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 14.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 11.0% | +0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 10.4% | +2.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 9.0% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 8.2% | -0.2 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 7.4% | -0.7 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 7.4% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 4.9% | — |
| Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 3.6% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 73.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $265.4K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections, is priced at 28.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice