Aug 12, 2026
Probability rose from 17.0% to 25.0% — a 8.0-point move over the past day.
2026 US House Election: Republican Seat Count Odds
Prediction markets price Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections at 23.5%.
23.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Updated · Volume $289.9K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 23.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 200 and 204 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 15.9% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 195 and 199 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 14.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 14.5% | +0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 205 and 209 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 12.6% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 210 and 214 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 9.3% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 225 and 229 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 5.3% | +0.2 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 5.1% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold between 220 and 224 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 2.9% | -0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 230 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 2.9% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 76.1% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 13.5% to 22.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability rose from 13.4% to 21.5% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 13.0% to 36.0% — a 23.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability fell from 20.0% to 18.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 21.0% to 18.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 10 tracked outcomes and $289.9K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections, is priced at 23.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice