Sep 25, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 37.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
GOP Senate Seats After 2026 Midterms: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections at 38.5%.
38.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Updated · Volume $3.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 38.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 16.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 8.5% | -0.5 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 6.3% | +0.4 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 3.1% | -0.4 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 1.6% | +0.3 |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.7% | +0.1 |
| Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 85.6% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 24, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 41.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 40.0% to 37.5% — a 2.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 41.0% to 25.5% — a 15.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 10, 2026
Probability rose from 23.5% to 41.0% — a 17.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 11 tracked outcomes and $3.2M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections, is priced at 38.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice