Aug 24, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 93.5% — a 2.4-point move over the past day.
Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Eduardo Paes’s chances of becoming the next governor of Rio de Janeiro at 94.8%. The election is scheduled for October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25 if no candidate secures a majority.
50.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Other win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?
Updated · Volume $433.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Eduardo Paes win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 94.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Other win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Douglas Ruas win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 3.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Rafa Luz win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Colonel Busnello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.5% | +0.3 |
| Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fred Pacheco win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will André Português win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Wilson Witzel win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Chico Machado win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Lindbergh Farias win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tarcísio Motta win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Eduardo Pazuello win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
Eduardo Paes is strongly favored to win, while the other named candidates are closely bunched and the rest of the field trails distantly.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.8% — a 3.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 97.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 95.2% to 93.5% — a 1.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 95.5% to 93.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Eduardo Paes’s probability now stands at 94.8%. The market resolves to the candidate who wins the election. Temporary or interim governors appointed before the vote are not considered. If the result is unknown by June 30, 2027, the market settles as “Other.” Resolution relies on a consensus of credible reporting, with the official tally from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) serving as the definitive source in case of ambiguity. A handful of formal conditions could realign the odds: the first-round vote on October 4, 2026; the potential runoff on October 25, 2026; and the eventual certification and reporting of the winner, with a final resolution deadline of June 30, 2027. Any delay or dispute over the official result would be resolved under the TSE’s published data.
FAQ
When does the Rio de Janeiro governor election take place?
The first round is held on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins a majority of valid votes, a runoff between the top two candidates follows on October 25, 2026.
How is the winner determined for this market?
The market resolves to the candidate officially declared the winner, based on a consensus of credible reporting. If reports conflict, the official results from Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) are used.
What happens if the election result is delayed?
If the outcome is not known by June 30, 2027, the market automatically resolves to “Other.” Interim or caretaker governors appointed before the election are not considered winners.
Who verifies the final vote count?
The Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral) is the authoritative body. This market relies on the TSE’s published results as the ultimate arbiter when necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice