Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 5.5% to 4.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay: Market Odds
Markets price the peace parlay at 4.5% — an outside chance all three conditions are met by the end of 2026.
4.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Updated · Volume $622.4K
The parlay outcome is seen as a long shot, while the No side accounts for the rest of the probability.
Context
The price of a Yes outcome now sits at 4.5%. It has traded in a range from 4.0% to 10.0%. Over the past day, the contract moved -1.0 pts. The market resolves to Yes if, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, a ceasefire has been declared, Ukraine has agreed not to join NATO, and Ukraine has signed a peace deal with Russia. If any condition is not met by the deadline, or if it becomes clear before then that at least one condition cannot be met, the market resolves to No. Settlement follows the linked Polymarket rules. The formal conditions that would determine the price revolve around the three explicit requirements stated in the rules. The deadline is Jan 1, 2027. Progress toward a ceasefire, a formal Ukrainian commitment to stay out of NATO, and the signing of a peace agreement are each necessary. The market may close early if it is confirmed that at least one condition has not been met.
FAQ
What are the three conditions for this market to resolve to Yes?
A ceasefire, Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO, and Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia, all by the deadline.
When does the market resolve?
It resolves when either all three conditions are met within the timeframe, or it is confirmed that at least one condition has not been met, with a final deadline of Jan 1, 2027.
What happens if only some conditions are met?
If any of the three conditions is not met by the deadline or is confirmed unachievable earlier, the market resolves to No.
Where can I find the full resolution rules?
Full rules are published at the link provided in the market description.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice