Sachsen-Anhalt 2026 Election: AfD Odds & Probability
Markets price AfD's chances to win the most seats at 99.4%, making the party the near-certain favorite for the September 2026 Landtag vote.
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?
Updated · Volume $890.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 99.4% | +0.1 |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.5% | -0.1 |
| Will FDP win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
AfD's chance to win the most seats dominates the market; the remaining outcomes are collectively long shots.
Context
AfD's probability to take the most seats sits at 99.4%. The contract resolves to the party winning the most seats in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt, based on official results. If no election takes place by Sep 6, 2026, it resolves to 'Other'. Seat ties are broken first by valid vote count, then alphabetically by party abbreviation. The main catalyst is the election itself, set for September 2026. A hard deadline exists: if voting does not occur by Sep 6, 2026, the outcome shifts to Other. The result will be sourced from credible reporting, with the official Landtag website as the final reference.
FAQ
What does this market predict?
It predicts which political party will win the most seats in the 2026 parliamentary elections in the German state of Sachsen-Anhalt.
How are ties in seat count resolved?
Ties are broken by the number of valid votes; if still tied, the party appearing first alphabetically wins.
What happens if the election is delayed past the contract's deadline?
If voting does not happen by the specified expiry, the market resolves to 'Other'.
What sources determine the outcome?
The market relies on credible reporting and, if unclear, the official results from the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt's website.
Does the market consider post-election coalitions?
No, it settles based solely on seats won by a single party. Coalition negotiations do not affect the result.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice