São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election at 92.5%.
92.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Updated · Volume $236.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 92.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 3.8% | +0.9 |
| Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 20 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another candidate win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 97.1% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 25 tracked outcomes and $236.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election, is priced at 92.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice