Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
São Paulo Governor Election Winner: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have Tarcísio de Freitas as the near-certain candidate to win the 2026 São Paulo governor election, with his chances priced at 97.3%.
97.3%0.0 pts 24h
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
Updated · Volume $293.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 97.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 2.0% | -0.1 |
| Will Erika Hilton win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Kim Kataguiri win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Márcio França win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 15 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 3 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 5 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 6 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 7 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 4 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 12 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 10 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 13 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 18 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another candidate win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 2 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 17 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 19 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 11 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 16 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 14 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 20 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 9 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder 8 win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Tarcísio de Freitas is the overwhelming favorite, leaving the rest of the field with minuscule odds.
Context
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 93.5% to 96.1% — a 2.6-point move over the past day.
It moved by 0.0 pts in the last day, Currently at 97.3%, the market displays little volatility, signaling entrenched expectations. The contract pays out based on who wins the governorship. A runoff is held if no candidate reaches a majority in the first vote. Only electoral victors count; interim governors are ignored. If the winner remains unknown after Oct 4, 2026, the outcome becomes “Other.” Resolution relies on credible media consensus unless the TSE’s official result differs. The first vote and any runoff are natural triggers for repricing. The deadline Oct 4, 2026 also sets a hard end. The market will closely watch the TSE’s vote tally and any certification disputes.
FAQ
How does this market determine the winner?
It resolves to the candidate who officially wins the São Paulo gubernatorial election, as confirmed by the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) or a consensus of credible reporting.
What if no candidate gets a majority in the first round?
A runoff election is held between the top two candidates. The market still resolves to the eventual winner of the runoff.
Does an appointed governor count?
No. Only candidates who win through the scheduled election are considered; temporary or interim appointments are irrelevant.
What happens if the election result is delayed?
If the outcome isn’t known by the resolution deadline, the market settles as “Other.” This provides a clean endpoint for uncertainty.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice