Solana all time high by December 31, 2026?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price the chance of Solana setting a new all-time high by December 31, 2026, at 3.8%, a level the market considers a long shot, with resolution resting on a single 1-minute Binance candle.
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $820.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? | 3.8% | -0.8 |
| Solana all time high by September 30, 2026? | 2.1% | -0.4 |
| Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? | 0.0% | — |
The market overwhelmingly views the chance of a new all-time high by year-end 2026 as a long shot, with the remaining scenarios all long shots.
Context
This market resolves to 'Yes' if any Binance 1-minute candle for SOL/USDT between 16 December 2025, 11:30, and 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026, has a final 'High' price that is higher than any previous Binance 1-minute candle's 'High' price on any prior date. The resolution source is exclusively Binance's SOL/USDT spot market with 1-minute candles selected; prices from other exchanges do not count. The probability moves with the likelihood that Solana can set a new peak during that specific window. A new all-time high on Binance before the window opens would reset the bar, making it harder for a later candle to qualify. Any sustained price rise through 2026 keeps the contract alive, while a failure to breach the existing high by the deadline would cause it to settle at zero.
FAQ
What exactly must happen for the market to resolve to 'Yes'?
Any 1-minute SOL/USDT candle on Binance, recorded between 16 December 2025, 11:30, and 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET, must show a high price that exceeds every previous 1-minute candle's high on any prior date. A single candle meeting that condition is sufficient.
What is the resolution source for this market?
The market resolves based solely on Binance's SOL/USDT spot pair, specifically the 'High' prices from 1-minute candles as displayed on the Binance trading interface under the '1m' and 'Candles' view.
What if Solana hits an all-time high after December 31, 2026, or before the window opens?
If the new high occurs outside the defined window—before 16 December 2025, 11:30, or after 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026—it does not count. The market would resolve to 'No' in that case.
Does a new all-time high on another exchange count?
No. Only Binance's SOL/USDT data matters. A record high on Coinbase, Kraken, or any other platform has no bearing on the result.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice