SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16 at 65.0%.

65.0%

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?

Updated · Volume $121.2K

42%51%59%68%Jul 13Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31?97.4%0.0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?93.5%-1.0
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?89.5%-3.5
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17?80.0%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?78.5%+0.5
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16?65.0%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster?1.0%-0.1
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?0.1%-0.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 438.9% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 9 tracked outcomes and $121.2K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16, is priced at 65.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice