Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 100.0% — a 22.0-point move over the past day.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 100.0% chance that SpaceX's Starship Flight Test 13 will take off by the end of August, a level the market has treated as near-certain for some time.
99.5%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
Updated · Volume $886.5K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 24? | 100.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 26? | 100.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 25? | 100.0% | — |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown? | 100.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by August 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? | 100.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 27? | 100.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode? | 99.5% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 17? | 0.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 16? | 0.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by June 30? | 0.0% | — |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy booster? | 0.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 23? | 0.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 20? | 0.0% | — |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15? | 0.0% | — |
The headline August deadline and the July 31 deadline are both seen as near-certain, whereas earlier launch dates and other specific conditions trade at progressively lower probabilities, with the three remaining scenarios priced as remote possibilities.
Context
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 83.0% to 100.0% — a 17.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 81.0% to 100.0% — a 18.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 69.0% to 100.0% — a 31.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 88.0% to 100.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 24, 2026
Probability rose from 88.2% to 100.0% — a 11.8-point move over the past day.
Jul 22, 2026
Probability rose from 92.8% to 96.0% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Jul 21, 2026
Probability fell from 97.8% to 93.0% — a 4.7-point move over the past day.
Jul 20, 2026
Probability fell from 99.0% to 89.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
The headline probability has remained in a tight range. At 100.0%, the current level reflects only minor adjustments. Each contract resolves based on observable facts from the test flight. For date-based contracts, the outcome is determined by whether the launch occurs on or before the deadline stated in the contract name. For the Superheavy explosion and Starship splashdown contracts, the outcome hinges on the actual result during the flight. Settlement follows the market's published rules. The approach of each deadline is the main formal condition. As time passes without a launch, the probabilities for earlier-date contracts decay. The contracts settle at expiration—if the launch has not occurred by the deadline, the market resolves to No. For the event-based contracts, the sole condition is the actual outcome of the flight, with no intermediate milestones affecting final settlement.
FAQ
How does the market determine whether a launch occurred by a specific date?
The contract resolves to Yes if the Starship flight test lifts off on or before the specified date; otherwise, it resolves to No.
What happens if the launch is delayed beyond a contract’s deadline?
That contract would settle to No at expiry, as the condition of launching by that date was not met.
How is the outcome of the Superheavy explosion contract decided?
It resolves to Yes if the Superheavy booster explodes during the test flight, and to No if it does not.
Does the market consider any pre-launch events like static fires or regulatory approvals?
No. Only the actual occurrence or non-occurrence of the described events by the deadlines determines settlement; pre-launch milestones do not directly resolve contracts.
Where can I find the official results used for settlement?
The market references verifiable sources defined in its terms, typically SpaceX’s public announcements or comparable data.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice