Top Album 2026: Odds & Probability

Markets price a 89.5% chance that Debí Tirar Más Fotos will be Spotify’s most-streamed album for 2026, updated 4 min ago.

89.5%0.0 pts 24h

Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos be the top Spotify album for 2026?

Updated · Volume $69.2K

75%80%86%92%Aug 23Aug 30Sep 7Sep 14Sep 22
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos be the top Spotify album for 2026?89.5%0.0
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top album for 2026?5.0%0.0
Will "Cloud 9 - Megan Moroney" be the top album for 2026?2.9%-0.1
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the top album for 2026?2.7%+0.7
Will "The Romantic - Bruno Mars" be the top album for 2026?1.8%-0.6
Will "The Fall-Off - J-Cole" be the top album for 2026?0.6%0.0
Will "Bully - Ye" be the top album for 2026?0.5%+0.1
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the top album for 2026?0.5%0.0
Will "Petal - Ariana Grande" be the top album for 2026?0.5%+0.1
Will "The Great Divide - Noah Kahan" be the top album for 2026?0.4%0.0
Will "Iceman - Drake" be the top album for 2026?0.4%0.0
Will "Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky" be the top album for 2026?0.3%+0.1
Will "Octane - Don Toliver" be the top album for 2026?0.3%+0.1
Will Album 28 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 5 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 21 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 8 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 14 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 33 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 17 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 18 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 12 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 39 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 38 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 6 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 15 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 10 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 13 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 4 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 36 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will another album be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 9 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 11 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 19 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 23 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 29 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 40 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 30 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 16 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 37 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 26 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 2 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 31 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 27 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 24 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 34 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 3 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 25 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 32 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 35 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 7 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 22 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Album 20 be the top Spotify album for 2026?0.0%0.0

Debí Tirar Más Fotos is the strongly favored outcome, while Arirang - BTS holds a substantial minority position; all other scenarios are long shots.

Context

Sep 19, 2026

Probability rose from 79.5% to 84.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 6, 2026

Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 5, 2026

Probability rose from 76.5% to 81.0% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 25, 2026

Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 24, 2026

Probability fell from 80.5% to 78.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Aug 19, 2026

Probability rose from 68.5% to 79.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 15, 2026

Probability rose from 57.5% to 70.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 14, 2026

Probability fell from 69.0% to 57.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.

Aug 12, 2026

Probability fell from 78.5% to 67.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Aug 11, 2026

Probability fell from 82.5% to 78.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.

The contract has traded between 76.5% and 89.5%. The current price of 89.5% places it in a strongly favored position. Resolution: The market settles to the album that Spotify reports as the most-streamed globally in 2026. If no such list is published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market defaults to “Other.” The resolution source is Spotify’s official data, typically released via its annual Wrapped campaign. What would move the number: The main formal trigger is the approach of the resolution deadline Feb 1, 2027, after which an unreleased report forces a settlement to “Other.” Official Spotify announcements or streaming data updates that clarify the leading album’s position could also shift prices.

FAQ

What data decides the outcome?

Spotify’s official report of the most-streamed album for 2026, typically published as part of its annual Wrapped campaign.

What happens if Spotify doesn't release a top album list?

If no list is published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other'.

How is the resolution source verified?

Verification relies on official information from Spotify, as specified in the market’s description.

Can other albums win besides the main contenders?

Yes, the market includes other options, but they are considered long shots.

When does trading stop?

Trading ends once the outcome is determined — either by Spotify’s announcement or, at the latest, by the resolution deadline.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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