Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 85.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Will Bad Bunny Be Top Spotify Artist 2026? Odds & Probability
Bad Bunny is strongly favored to be Spotify's most-streamed artist of 2026, with markets pricing the probability at 87.0%. The market will settle once Spotify publishes its Wrapped top artist, or resolve to 'No' if no artist is named by the cutoff date.
87.0%-0.5 pts 24h
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.6M
Across platforms
3.0 pt spreadWill Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?
- Polymarket87.0%
- Kalshi84.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? | 87.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Drake be the top artist for 2026? | 9.3% | +0.6 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top artist for 2026? | 2.1% | -0.0 |
| Will Bruno Mars be the top artist for 2026? | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Will The Weeknd be the top artist for 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the top artist for 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist for 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Beyoncé be the top artist for 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter be the top artist for 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Chappell Roan be the top artist for 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 14 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 13 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 8 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another artist be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 10 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 16 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 12 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 29 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 6 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 31 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 33 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 9 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 19 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 21 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 5 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 2 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 11 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 18 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 32 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 35 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 22 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 24 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 4 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 1 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 3 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 17 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 30 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 26 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 23 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 27 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 25 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 28 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 34 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 15 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 20 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Artist 7 be the top Spotify artist for 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Bad Bunny is heavily favored at 87.0%, with the remaining eleven potential artists all considered long shots.
Context
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 85.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 16, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 76.5% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
The probability assigned to Bad Bunny currently stands at 87.0%, having traded between 74.5% and 90.0% over the observed period. Cumulative trading volume sits at $1.6M. The market resolves according to the artist Spotify officially names as its top streamed act for 2026, typically published in the annual Wrapped report. A hard deadline applies: if Spotify has not declared a top artist by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market settles to 'No'. A resolution deadline of Dec 31, 2026 is the primary structural factor. The market reacts to the passage of time and the anticipated Wrapped report; once released, the named top artist immediately determines the payout.
FAQ
What is the resolution source?
Official information from Spotify, typically released as part of the annual Wrapped campaign.
What happens if Spotify does not release a Wrapped report?
If Spotify has not named a top artist for 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.
Is this market affiliated with Spotify?
No. Polymarket is not affiliated with Spotify AB, and neither Spotify AB nor its affiliates sponsor or endorse this market.
Can multiple artists be named?
The market resolves to the single artist Spotify designates as the top streamed. If no single artist is set, it resolves to 'No'.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice