Tour De France 2026: White Jersey Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Isaac del Toro at 100.0% to win the White Jersey in the 2026 Tour de France. The contract settles on the official young rider classification winner by Aug 9, 2026.

50.0%

Will Cyclist B win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?

Updated · Volume $63.7K

Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.

OutcomeProbability24h
Will Isaac del Toro win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?100.0%
Will Cyclist B win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist D win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist O win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist C win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist J win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist R win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist A win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist E win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Cyclist T win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?50.0%
Will Huub Artz win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Georg Steinhauser win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Marco Frigo win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Robbe Dhondt win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Juan Ayuso win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Matthew Riccitello win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Emiel Verstrynge win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Jenno Berckmoes win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Mattéo Vercher win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Pavel Bittner win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Paul Seixas win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Vlad Van Mechelen win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Per Strand Hagenes win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Lenny Martinez win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Davide Piganzoli win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Antonio Tiberi win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Lorenzo Germani win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Lewis Askey win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Frits Biesterbos win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Mathis Le Berre win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Josh Tarling win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Mathias Vacek win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Kévin Vauquelin win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Cian Uijtdebroeks win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Ramses Debruyne win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Lars Craps win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Lennert Van Eetvelt win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Nicolas Vinokurov win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Olav Kooij win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Ewen Costiou win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Arnaud De Lie win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Pablo Castrillo win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Romain Grégoire win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Alex Baudin win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Max Walker win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Raúl García Pierna win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.1%
Will Cyclist H win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist L win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist S win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist M win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist F win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will someone else win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist N win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist G win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist P win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist K win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist I win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%
Will Cyclist Q win the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?0.0%

While Isaac del Toro is the near-certain frontrunner, the remaining cyclists each trade at levels that make the contest behind him a finely balanced affair.

Context

Del Toro’s probability has held at 100.0%. This market settles to the official winner of the White Jersey as determined by UCI rules. In a tie, the winner is the alphabetically first last name among those announced. If the race is cancelled or postponed past Aug 9, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'. The resolution source is official UCI information, though a consensus of credible reporting may serve as a fallback. Price shifts will hinge on any formal UCI announcement altering the status or classification of contenders, particularly Isaac del Toro. The market’s expiry at Aug 9, 2026 provides a hard deadline; a delay beyond that date forces an 'Other' resolution. Credible reporting that diverges from official UCI channels could also test confidence in the settlement source.

FAQ

How does the market determine the winner?

It resolves to the rider officially awarded the White Jersey at the 2026 Tour de France, based on UCI regulations.

What if two riders tie for the jersey?

The market follows UCI tie-break rules. If multiple winners are still announced, it settles on the one whose last name comes first alphabetically.

What happens if the race is canceled or postponed?

If no winner is declared by Aug 9, 2026, the market resolves to 'Other'.

Where does the resolution data come from?

Primarily from official UCI information, but consensus of credible reporting may be used if the UCI is ambiguous.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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