Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 6.9% to 21.2% — a 14.3-point move over the past day.
Prediction markets see Arman Tsarukyan as a substantial minority view to be Charles Oliveira’s next matchup, pricing the probability at 20.4%. The market resolves to the opponent named in the next official UFC announcement with a scheduled date.
Will Justin Gaethje fight Charles Oliveira next?
Updated · Volume $196.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Justin Gaethje fight Charles Oliveira next? | 20.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Maurício Ruffy fight Charles Oliveira next? | 4.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Charles Oliveira next? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ilia Topuria fight Charles Oliveira next? | 3.9% | +0.3 |
| Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next? | 3.5% | +0.3 |
| Will Arman Tsarukyan fight Charles Oliveira next? | 1.8% | -1.3 |
| Will Islam Makhachev fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.6% | +0.1 |
| Will Conor McGregor fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Dan Hooker fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Mateusz Gamrot fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder J fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will someone else fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder D fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder I fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder O fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder F fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder B fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder H fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder C fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder M fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder G fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder E fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder L fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder N fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Placeholder K fight Charles Oliveira next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Beyond Tsarukyan, the only other fighter with a non-negligible probability is Ilia Topuria, at 4.8%, which represents an a long shot. The remaining 10 fighters and the “Other” category are all long shots.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 6.9% to 21.2% — a 14.3-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability rose from 10.1% to 29.3% — a 19.2-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 4.3% to 10.1% — a 5.7-point move over the past day.
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 4.0% to 10.9% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 10.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 1.4% to 10.2% — a 8.8-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability rose from 4.9% to 6.5% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 35.2% to 25.1% — a 10.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 1.3% to 39.0% — a 37.6-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability fell from 61.7% to 39.8% — a 21.9-point move over the past day.
This prediction market asks which UFC fighter will be Charles Oliveira’s next opponent, based solely on the promotion’s official announcements. A qualifying announcement must name an opponent and include a scheduled date—rumors, media reports, or date-less confirmations are not sufficient. The market lists 12 specific fighters plus a catch-all “Other” option. If no such official announcement occurs by Mar 1, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
At the time of writing, Arman Tsarukyan is the overwhelming favorite. Markets assign him a probability of 20.4%, placing him firmly in the “a substantial minority view” category. This lopsided distribution means bettors see a Tsarukyan match as the near-certain outcome. Still, the market does not rule out surprises: until the UFC makes an official move, there is always a chance that negotiations fall through or a different opponent gets the call. The probability has ranged between 0.3% and 30.6% during the observed period, while total volume has reached $196.7K. The narrow range and high probability point to a market that has settled on Tsarukyan as the expected pick. For Oliveira, the next official announcement will determine not just the market’s resolution but also the next step in his career. The lightweight division is deep, and even a short-notice booking could shake up the hierarchy. But for now, the market’s message is clear: Tsarukyan is the name to watch.
The market resolves to the opponent named in the next official UFC announcement that includes a scheduled date for the bout. Announcements without a date or unofficial speculation are not considered.
If no qualifying announcement is made by Mar 1, 2027, the market resolves to “Other.”
Arman Tsarukyan is a substantial minority view, with markets pricing his chances at 20.4%.
The probability has fluctuated between 0.3% and 30.6%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice