Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 94.9% to 98.0% — a 3.2-point move over the past day.
Aurelien Tchouameni Transfer Odds & Probability
Prediction markets give a 99.9% chance that Aurelien Tchouameni remains at Real Madrid past the transfer window. The market resolves early if an official announcement is made before the September 1, 2026 deadline.
50.0%
Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team G?
Updated · Volume $84.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? | 99.9% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team G? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team H? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team B? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team D? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team J? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team A? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team C? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team I? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join another team? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team F? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Team E? | 50.0% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Paris Saint-Germain? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Liverpool? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Manchester City? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Arsenal? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Aurelien Tchouameni join Bayern Munich? | 0.1% | — |
The staying-at-Madrid outcome is the clear expectation; the remaining possibilities are all finely balanced.
Context
Aug 26, 2026
Probability rose from 85.3% to 95.8% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 97.8% to 91.3% — a 6.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 94.8% to 97.2% — a 2.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 88.4% to 96.7% — a 8.3-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 49.1% to 80.5% — a 31.3-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 87.5% to 67.8% — a 19.7-point move over the past day.
Heading into the final months before the deadline, the market sees staying at Real Madrid as near-certain. The market resolves to the next team Tchouaméni officially joins by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If no transfer occurs, it settles to Real Madrid. A move to an unlisted club, a release, retirement, or lack of contract resolves as "Other". An official transfer announcement triggers immediate resolution. Primary sources are official statements from Real Madrid or the acquiring team, with credible media reporting as a fallback. The key formal condition is the September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline. Any official transfer announcement during the active period will settle the market instantly. Resolution follows the listed sources—club statements or media consensus.
FAQ
When does the market resolve?
It resolves as soon as an official transfer is announced, or on September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if Tchouaméni has not joined a new team. If he stays, it resolves to Real Madrid.
What happens if he joins a team not listed?
The market would resolve to "Other".
What if he retires or is without a club?
That also resolves to "Other".
How is a transfer confirmed?
Primary sources are official announcements from Real Madrid or the acquiring team. Credible media reports may be used if necessary.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice