Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 92.1% to 98.2% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Maxx Crosby 2026 Team: Live Odds & Probability
Traders assign a 98.6% likelihood to Maxx Crosby remaining with the Las Vegas Raiders through the 2026 deadline, making it near-certain. The remaining dozen outcomes combined barely register.
98.6%+6.3 pts 24h
Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next?
Updated · Volume $6.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Las Vegas Raiders next? | 98.6% | +6.3 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Dallas Cowboys next? | 1.1% | -4.4 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? | 0.8% | -1.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Jacksonville Jaguars next? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Philadelphia Eagles next? | 0.3% | -2.1 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Detroit Lions next? | 0.2% | -0.5 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for San Francisco 49ers next? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Chicago Bears next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Cleveland Browns next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Tennessee Titans next? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Kansas City Chiefs next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Denver Broncos next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for New England Patriots next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Chargers next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? | 0.1% | -0.1 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Giants next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Buffalo Bills next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Washington Commanders next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Miami Dolphins next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Tampa Bay Buccaneers next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Pittsburgh Steelers next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Arizona Cardinals next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Minnesota Vikings next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Atlanta Falcons next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Cincinnati Bengals next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Houston Texans next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Indianapolis Colts next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Seattle Seahawks next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for New Orleans Saints next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Green Bay Packers next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for Baltimore Ravens next? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Maxx Crosby play for another team next? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The Raiders dominate the market, while the other 11 teams combined hold only a sliver of probability, none emerging individually.
Context
Aug 25, 2026
Probability fell from 95.2% to 93.8% — a 1.4-point move over the past day.
Aug 19, 2026
Probability fell from 95.2% to 92.5% — a 2.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 18, 2026
Probability fell from 95.0% to 90.1% — a 4.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 82.9% — a 5.4-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 79.7% to 81.7% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 4, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 79.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 31, 2026
Probability rose from 79.7% to 81.2% — a 1.6-point move over the past day.
Jul 30, 2026
Probability fell from 81.5% to 78.6% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 79.3% to 84.4% — a 5.1-point move over the past day.
The line has stayed near-certain throughout the measurement period, moving between 74.4% and 95.2%. Volume on the market stands at $6.4M. The market resolves to the next team Crosby officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If he does not change teams, the outcome is the Las Vegas Raiders. An unlisted team, a release without a new contract, or retirement all land in “Other.” Only senior-team moves count; transfers to a practice squad or reserve unit are ignored. An official announcement before the close date settles the market immediately, with resolution drawn from team statements or, failing that, a consensus of credible media reports. An official signing announcement would instantly resolve the market. Barring that, the final deadline is Sep 1, 2026. After that date, if no move has occurred, the contract settles in the Raiders’ column. No other scheduled events or triggers are built into the rules.
FAQ
What counts as an official move?
An announcement by the Raiders or the acquiring team confirming Crosby has joined. A consensus of credible media reports can also be used.
What happens if Crosby retires before the deadline?
If he is not under contract with any professional team by the deadline, the market resolves to “Other.”
Does being sent to the practice squad trigger a resolution?
No. Transfers between a team’s senior squad and its reserve or affiliate teams are not considered for this market.
When is the final cutoff for a move?
August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. Any official signing before that time resolves immediately.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice