Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 84.8% to 95.9% — a 11.1-point move over the past day.
Where will Yan Diomande transfer? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets have settled Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Yan Diomande join Real MadridEvent concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $152.5K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Yan Diomande join Real Madrid? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande stay at RB Leipzig? | 0.3% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Arsenal? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join another team? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team D? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Chelsea? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team I? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team A? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team F? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team J? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team C? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Barcelona? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Manchester City? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Bayern Munich? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team G? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team H? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Liverpool? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team B? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Paris Saint-Germain? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Yan Diomande join Team E? | 0.0% | — |
Context
Aug 4, 2026
Probability rose from 77.3% to 89.5% — a 12.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability fell from 90.0% to 77.3% — a 12.7-point move over the past day.
Aug 2, 2026
Probability fell from 97.2% to 93.7% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 1, 2026
Probability rose from 92.2% to 96.1% — a 3.9-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 29, 2026
Probability fell from 95.3% to 93.2% — a 2.1-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 97.0% to 91.0% — a 5.9-point move over the past day.
Around this time: Diomande, Real Madrid ‘agree terms’ for transfer of Leipzig winger — Al Jazeera
Jul 27, 2026
Probability rose from 75.5% to 97.6% — a 22.1-point move over the past day.
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice