Will Olivia Rodrigo Top the Charts in 2026? Prediction Market Odds
Markets price the chance that Olivia Rodrigo notches a Billboard Hot 100 number one in 2026 at 100.0%, making her an all-but-priced-in proposition at the top. The number has barely twitched in recent trading, hugging its peak.
Will Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?
Updated · Volume $173.4K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Drake have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ariana Grande have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Bad Bunny have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Harry Styles have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Mariah Carey have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 98.4% | -0.3 |
| Will Peso Pluma have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 49.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Post Malone have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 49.0% | +22.5 |
| Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 44.4% | +22.3 |
| Will Morgan Wallen have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 29.5% | -7.0 |
| Will SZA have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 20.5% | 0.0 |
| Will The Weeknd have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 16.0% | -5.0 |
| Will Zach Bryan have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 14.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 14.5% | -3.5 |
| Will Frank Ocean have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 12.6% | +4.4 |
| Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 12.5% | -4.0 |
| Will Luke Combs have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 12.0% | -6.5 |
| Will Future have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 11.8% | +1.2 |
| Will Tyler, The Creator have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 11.5% | -1.0 |
| Will Billie Eilish have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 11.0% | -1.0 |
| Will Travis Scott have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 11.0% | -2.5 |
| Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 10.8% | -1.2 |
| Will Rihanna have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 8.9% | +0.7 |
| Will Doja Cat have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 8.9% | -1.7 |
| Will Jack Harlow have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 8.1% | +0.5 |
| Will Playboi Carti have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 5.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Kanye West have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 2.6% | -0.5 |
| Will A$AP Rocky have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | 1.4% | -0.9 |
At 100.0%, Olivia Rodrigo’s near-certain status towers over a field where chances for other artists range from similarly high to finely balanced.
Context
Over the past day, it edged 0.0 pts. Total volume sits at $173.4K. To resolve positively, a song with Rodrigo billed as a primary artist must land at number one on any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 chart published for a data-collection week falling entirely within 2026. Features and production credits are disregarded; only primary-artist attribution as shown on Billboard’s website counts. If a number one is later revised, both the original and the corrected songs are valid. The eligibility window spans the chart titled 'Week of January 17, 2026' (covering January 2–8) through 'Week of January 9, 2027' (covering December 25–31, 2026). The market’s view will be shaped by each new weekly Billboard Hot 100 release — the resolution source — and the deadline is the final chart of the window, published in early January 2027. The approaching end date Dec 31, 2026 is the key formal condition that concentrates attention as the year unfolds.
FAQ
What qualifies as a Billboard Hot 100 #1 for this market?
Any song where Olivia Rodrigo appears as a primary artist on the official weekly Billboard Hot 100 chart at the number one position, for a data week that falls entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Songs released before 2026 also count.
Do guest features or writing credits count?
No. Only songs where Olivia Rodrigo is credited as a primary artist by Billboard on the chart page count; features, writing, and production credits are not considered.
What happens if a chart-topper is later revised?
If Billboard revises a number one after initial publication, both the original and the revised songs count toward the market, as long as the revision occurs before the final relevant chart is released (the "Week of January 9, 2027" chart).
When is the deadline for a song to hit #1?
The last eligible data week runs from December 25–31, 2026, reflected in the Billboard chart titled "Week of January 9, 2027." The market will then resolve based on whether any eligible song hit #1 during 2026.
Where can I verify the results?
The official Billboard Hot 100 chart at billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ serves as the resolution source.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice