Jul 28, 2026
Probability rose from 86.7% to 100.0% — a 13.3-point move over the past day.
Avengers: Doomsday Character Appearance Odds
Markets price Simu Liu returning as Shang-Chi in Avengers: Doomsday at 100.0%, making his appearance near-certain.
51.5%0.0 pts 24h
Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan?
Updated · Volume $149.1K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Kathryn Newton as Cassie Lang? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Hayley Atwell as Peggy Carter? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Simu Liu as Shang-Chi? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? | 95.0% | +0.5 |
| Benedict Cumberbatch as Doctor Strange? | 94.0% | 0.0 |
| Ryan Reynolds as Deadpool? | 92.0% | -0.5 |
| Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? | 90.0% | -3.0 |
| Teyonah Parris as Monica Rambeau? | 79.5% | 0.0 |
| Benedict Wong as Wong? | 72.5% | 0.0 |
| Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel? | 67.5% | -1.5 |
| Gwyneth Paltrow as Pepper Potts? | 63.5% | -0.5 |
| Hailee Steinfeld as Kate Bishop? | 55.5% | -7.5 |
| Brie Larson as Captain Marvel? | 54.5% | 0.0 |
| Jon Favreau as Happy Hogan? | 51.5% | 0.0 |
| Mark Ruffalo as Hulk? | 47.0% | 0.0 |
| Elizabeth Olsen as Scarlet Witch? | 45.5% | -3.0 |
| Tom Holland as Spider-Man? | 41.5% | +0.5 |
| Xochitl Gomez as America Chavez? | 28.5% | -32.0 |
| Halle Berry as Storm? | 25.5% | 0.0 |
| Don Cheadle as James Rhodes / War Machine? | 21.5% | 0.0 |
| Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? | 20.0% | +0.5 |
| Evangeline Lilly as the Wasp? | 10.0% | -3.5 |
| Jonathan Majors as Kang? | 7.2% | +0.1 |
While Liu’s return is near-certain, the other characters range from strongly favored to close to a coin flip, none reaching the headline’s confidence.
Context
Betting on Liu’s inclusion has held at elevated levels with little movement. The market resolves to ‘Yes’ if Liu appears as the character. A resolution can come early upon an official casting announcement—even if the film is delayed or cancelled—or, absent casting, with footage from the domestic theatrical cut. Should the film be definitively cancelled or remain unreleased by Dec 18, 2026, the market settles at ‘No’. Deciding sources are official statements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the theatrical cut, or a consensus of credible reporting. Two formal checkpoints could shift the odds: any official casting update and the domestic theatrical release. The final binding deadline is Dec 18, 2026; if the film hasn’t arrived by then, the market closes at ‘No’.
FAQ
What counts as an appearance by Simu Liu as Shang-Chi?
The actor must be cast and appear in the role. If multiple actors portray Shang-Chi, Liu’s inclusion among the cast suffices for a ‘Yes’.
When does this market resolve?
As soon as an official casting announcement is made, the market can resolve. If casting remains unconfirmed, it resolves upon footage from the domestic theatrical release or by the final deadline if the film is unreleased.
What if another actor is cast as Shang-Chi instead?
If another actor is cast but Liu is not among the cast for the role, the market resolves ‘No’.
What sources are used to verify the outcome?
The market relies on official announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., the domestic theatrical cut, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice