Jul 17, 2026
Probability fell from 97.4% to 93.7% — a 3.6-point move over the past day.
Will Anthropic Top the AI Leaderboard in July 2026? Odds
Prediction markets have settled Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026 at 100.0%. Trading has effectively closed; the outcome is decided and official platform settlement is pending.
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026Event concluded — awaiting official settlement
Updated · Volume $129.9K
Market opened recently — probability history is accumulating.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 100.0% | — |
| Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company K have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company H have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Alibaba have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mistral have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Amazon have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Z.ai have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company G have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Moonshot have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company C have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will any other company have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company F have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will ByteDance have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company A have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Baidu have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company B have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Microsoft have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company D have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Meituan have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company E have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Company I have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
| Will DeepSeek have the #1 AI model at the end of July 2026? | 0.0% | — |
Context
This event has concluded — market prices have moved to their final values and no longer reflect live uncertainty.
The platform has not yet posted its official settlement, so figures may show small residual values until then. Final prices for every outcome are listed below.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice