Sep 11, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 63.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Anthropic leads prediction market for best AI model at year-end 2026
Prediction markets price Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 at 70.5%.
70.5%-1.0 pts 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.4M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 70.5% | -1.0 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 14.0% | +4.5 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 9.5% | -3.0 |
| Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 3.3% | +0.4 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 3.2% | +0.2 |
| Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 1.3% | +0.6 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.6% | -0.1 |
| Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.5% | -0.0 |
| Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.4% | -0.3 |
| Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company K have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company A have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company D have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company E have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company C have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company I have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 96.2% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 70.0% to 56.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 26 tracked outcomes and $1.4M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026, is priced at 70.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice