Anthropic leads prediction market for best AI model at year-end 2026

Prediction markets price Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026 at 62.0%.

62.0%-2.5 pts 24h

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

Updated · Volume $1.2M

52%60%67%75%Aug 10Aug 17Aug 25Sep 1Sep 9
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?62.0%-2.5
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?19.5%-1.0
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?7.5%-1.0
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?5.1%+0.1
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?1.8%-0.1
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.9%0.0
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.5%0.0
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.5%0.0
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.4%0.0
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.3%0.0
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.3%0.0
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Company K have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company F have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company D have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company I have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will any other company have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company E have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company G have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company B have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company H have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company A have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Company C have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 96.4% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 5, 2026

Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 4, 2026

Probability fell from 70.0% to 56.5% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 26 tracked outcomes and $1.2M in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026, is priced at 62.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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