Sep 18, 2026
Probability fell from 81.0% to 79.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Which company's AI will first hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? Odds
Prediction markets price Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 at 79.5%.
79.5%+1.5 pts 24h
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Updated · Volume $126.2K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 79.5% | +1.5 |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 11.5% | -1.0 |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 3.8% | -1.0 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 1.7% | +0.1 |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.7% | 0.0 |
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Company G be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company R be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company L be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company T be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company E be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company I be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company F be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company N be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company P be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company W be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company D be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company J be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company M be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company Y be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company Q be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company H be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company K be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company S be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company U be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company V be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company O be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company X be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.7% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 82.0% to 79.0% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 32 tracked outcomes and $126.2K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026, is priced at 79.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice