Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Prediction markets price Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026 at 82.0%.
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Updated · Volume $125.8K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 82.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 11.0% | -0.5 |
| Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 4.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.9% | -0.0 |
| Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.9% | -0.0 |
| Will Alibaba be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.6% | 0.0 |
| Will DeepSeek be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Z.ai be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Mistral be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Company T be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company E be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company I be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company F be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company N be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company P be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will a company not listed here be the first to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company W be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company D be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company J be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company M be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company Y be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company U be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company H be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company K be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company X be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company Q be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company L be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company O be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company S be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company G be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company V be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Company R be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 98.8% of the total probability.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 79.0% to 81.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 28, 2026
Probability fell from 80.0% to 78.5% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 24, 2026
Probability fell from 80.5% to 79.0% — a 1.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 32 tracked outcomes and $125.8K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026, is priced at 82.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice