Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026? Odds & Probability
Markets price the probability of an Ebola case in Uganda in 2026 at 100.0%, making it near-certain. Official confirmation from health authorities by year-end will settle the market.
Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?
Updated · Volume $38.7K
Across platforms
49.5 pt spreadWill Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026?
- Polymarket49.5%
- Kalshi99.0%
Matched automatically by question and resolution date. How we match.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Uganda have an Ebola case in 2026? | 100.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ethiopia have an Ebola case in 2026? | 51.5% | +8.5 |
| Will Burundi have an Ebola case in 2026? | 49.5% | +5.0 |
| Will Nigeria have an Ebola case in 2026? | 48.5% | -1.0 |
| Will South Sudan have an Ebola case in 2026? | 45.0% | +15.0 |
| Will India have an Ebola case in 2026? | 44.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Canada have an Ebola case in 2026? | 37.5% | +13.5 |
| Will Somalia have an Ebola case in 2026? | 34.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Kenya have an Ebola case in 2026? | 23.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Rwanda have an Ebola case in 2026? | 20.5% | -2.0 |
| Will the Republic of the Congo have an Ebola case in 2026? | 19.5% | -2.0 |
| Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? | 17.5% | -2.0 |
| Will China have an Ebola case in 2026? | 13.0% | -1.0 |
The market sees a Ugandan case as near-certain. All other countries trade at substantially lower probabilities.
Context
The price has ranged from 19.5% to 53.0% since the contract launched. and +5.0 pts in the last day, reaching 100.0% as of 7 min ago. The market resolves to Yes if a confirmed Ebola case is reported within Uganda's borders at any point between now and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Official confirmation by national or international health authorities is the primary resolution source, though overwhelming consensus in credible reporting also suffices. The location of exposure, symptom onset, or testing does not matter as long as the infection is identified inside the country. Any new case reports before the deadline will shift the price. The market settles on Jan 1, 2027, so updates from bodies like the WHO or Uganda's health ministry are the main drivers. No scheduled events or periodic releases influence the contract.
FAQ
What counts as a confirmed Ebola case?
Any active laboratory-confirmed or officially confirmed Ebola infection identified within the country's territory qualifies, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
How is the market resolved?
Resolution is based on official information from national and international health authorities. If that is unavailable, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will be used.
Does the case need to be reported within Uganda?
Yes, the infection must be identified in the territory of the specific country. The location of exposure or testing does not change the resolution.
When is the final determination made?
The market considers all cases reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The contract settles after that cutoff.
Data: Polymarket, Kalshi · Methodology · Not financial advice