Sep 22, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 57.5% — a 6.0-point move over the past day.
Which Movie Has Biggest Opening Week in 2026: Odds & Probability
Markets price the chance of Avengers: Doomsday securing the highest domestic opening week of 2026 at 57.5%. Resolution will depend on the Weekly Box Office Performance table from The Numbers.
57.5%-6.0 pts 24h
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026?
Updated · Volume $202.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 57.5% | -6.0 |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 41.5% | +5.0 |
| Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Dune: Messiah have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie W have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie O have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie M have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie F have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie Q have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie H have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will The Odyssey have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie V have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Michael have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie P have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie T have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie X have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie Z have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie S have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie R have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie L have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie B have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another movie have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie I have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie K have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie N have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie C have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie E have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie U have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie D have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie Y have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie J have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie A have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Movie G have the best domestic opening week in 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
Avengers: Doomsday is close to a coin flip to top the 2026 domestic opening week charts, while the other movies, such as Spider-Man: Brand New Day, are unlikely.
Context
Sep 21, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 56.5% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 18, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 63.0% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 17, 2026
Probability rose from 57.5% to 61.5% — a 4.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 57.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 15, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 59.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 12, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 57.5% — a 4.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 59.5% to 61.5% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 65.0% to 58.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
The probability that Avengers: Doomsday will post the best domestic opening week of 2026 currently sits at 57.5%, as of 15 min ago. Over the observed period the figure has moved between 41.5% and 72.5%. Total volume is $202.7K. The market resolves to Yes if Avengers: Doomsday’s domestic opening week gross, as recorded in The Numbers’ Weekly Box Office Performance table, exceeds that of any other 2026 release. Only final figures count, not studio estimates. If another movie’s opening week later surpasses it once both numbers are finalized, the market resolves to No. In a tie, the film whose title comes first alphabetically wins. Should final data remain unavailable by January 31, 2027, an alternative credible source will be chosen. The figure will be settled once The Numbers publishes final opening week data for Avengers: Doomsday and all other 2026 releases. The hard deadline for settlement is Feb 1, 2027; if another movie’s opening week overtakes it after both are finalized, the market resolves to No immediately.
FAQ
What source determines opening week box office?
The market uses the Weekly Box Office Performance table on The Numbers website for the relevant movie, once figures are final and not studio estimates.
What happens if two movies tie for opening week gross?
The movie with the title that comes first in alphabetical order is deemed the winner.
When will the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after final opening week figures are available for the movie in question. If no final data is available by January 31, 2027, another credible source will be chosen.
What does 'domestic opening week' include?
It covers the figures provided by The Numbers for the opening week, whether that includes only the USA or the USA and Canada.
Can the market resolve early if another movie surpasses?
Yes, if another movie’s opening week box office performance overtakes that of the named movie after both numbers are finalized, the market may immediately resolve to No.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice