Aug 11, 2026
Probability fell from 60.5% to 57.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Which Party Wins the 2028 US Election?: Market Odds
Prediction markets price Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election at 58.5%.
58.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Updated · Volume $2.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 58.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 40.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Party G win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party E win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party F win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party I win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party J win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party C win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party L win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party D win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party H win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party A win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party B win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another party win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 100.0% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 15 tracked outcomes and $2.1M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election, is priced at 58.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice