Which Party Wins the 2028 US Election?: Market Odds
Markets price a Democratic victory at 58.5%, leaving the 2028 presidential race a close to a coin flip contest between the two major parties.
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Updated · Volume $1.9M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 58.5% | 0.0 |
| Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 40.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Party K win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party I win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party F win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another party win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party E win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party H win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party L win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party D win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party G win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party A win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party C win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party B win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Party J win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | 0.0% | — |
The Democrats are close to a coin flip to win at 58.5%, closely matched by Republicans at 40.5% with close to a coin flip chances, while all other party outcomes are priced as long shots.
Context
The Democrats' probability sits at 58.5%, indicating a close to a coin flip election. The odds moved 0.0 pts over the past day, Trading volume totals $1.9M. The market resolves to the party whose candidate is elected President. Resolution depends on all three sources—the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC—projecting the same winner. If they have not agreed by Inauguration Day on January 20, 2029, the market settles according to who is inaugurated. The formal triggers that could alter the probability include the election on Nov 7, 2028 and the inauguration fallback deadline. The market also reacts to updates from the three designated news organizations, which serve as the sole resolution sources.
FAQ
How does this market resolve?
It resolves to the political party of the candidate elected President. The outcome is determined by calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
What if the sources disagree on the winner?
The market waits until all three sources call the race for the same party. If they remain split by Inauguration Day, it resolves based on who is inaugurated.
Which political parties are covered?
The market includes outcomes for the Democratic and Republican parties, plus a range of third-party options. The major parties absorb almost all the probability.
Does the market consider the popular vote?
No, it resolves on the actual election result—the Electoral College winner as called by the designated sources.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice