Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections at 83.5%.

83.5%

Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Updated · Volume $367.0K

81%83%84%86%Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14Jul 14
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?97.4%0.0
Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?96.0%+0.4
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?95.8%-0.0
Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?92.5%-0.5
Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?91.0%0.0
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?90.5%0.0
Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?90.5%+0.3
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?84.5%+9.5
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?83.5%
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?7.5%
Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?6.5%
Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?6.1%
Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?5.6%
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?5.5%
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?5.0%
Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?4.8%
Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?4.6%
Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?4.5%
Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?4.3%
Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?3.5%
Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?3.2%
Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?2.9%
Will Tennessee use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?0.0%
Will Mississippi use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?0.0%

The top 5 outcomes account for 472.6% of the total probability.

Context

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $367.0K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections, is priced at 83.5%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice