Which states will use new congressional maps in the midterms?: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections at 83.5%.
83.5%
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Updated · Volume $367.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 97.4% | 0.0 |
| Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 96.0% | +0.4 |
| Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 95.8% | -0.0 |
| Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 92.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 91.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 90.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 90.5% | +0.3 |
| Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 84.5% | +9.5 |
| Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 83.5% | — |
| Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 7.5% | — |
| Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 6.5% | — |
| Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 6.1% | — |
| Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.6% | — |
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.5% | — |
| Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.0% | — |
| Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.8% | — |
| Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.6% | — |
| Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.5% | — |
| Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.3% | — |
| Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 3.5% | — |
| Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 3.2% | — |
| Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 2.9% | — |
| Will Tennessee use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Mississippi use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.0% | — |
The top 5 outcomes account for 472.6% of the total probability.
Context
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 24 tracked outcomes and $367.0K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections, is priced at 83.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice