2026 Midterm Congressional Maps: State-by-State Odds
Prediction markets give Texas a 98.2% chance of using a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms, near-certain. To qualify, a map must be adopted after the 2024 elections, enacted into law, and survive legal scrutiny before election day.
Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
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| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Florida use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 98.2% | -0.3 |
| Will Texas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 98.1% | 0.0 |
| Will California use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 96.6% | -0.6 |
| Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 96.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Ohio use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 94.1% | -1.0 |
| Will Louisiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 93.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 92.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 90.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Missouri use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 86.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.6% | +0.4 |
| Will Georgia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.4% | +0.1 |
| Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Minnesota use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 5.0% | +0.1 |
| Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will New Jersey use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.3% | -0.2 |
| Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.3% | +0.1 |
| Will Maryland use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 4.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Washington use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 3.5% | +0.2 |
| Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 3.0% | -0.2 |
| Will Illinois use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 2.5% | +0.1 |
| Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 2.2% | -0.3 |
| Will South Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mississippi use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Tennessee use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
While Texas is the headline state, California, North Carolina, and several others are also strongly favored to use new maps; the remaining states are longer shots.
Context
The probability for Texas has held near 98.2%, after moving within a range of 83.5% to 92.5% over recent months. The market resolves to "Yes" for any state where a new congressional district map is formally adopted after the 2024 elections, enacted by the appropriate authority, and not enjoined or struck down before the 2026 midterms. A map that is temporarily stayed but later upheld qualifies if it is in effect for the election. If a map is completely redrawn by a court or special master, it qualifies only if that redrawn map is new and used. If the midterms arrive and no qualifying new map is in place, the outcome for that state is "No". Resolution sources are official state information and a consensus of credible reporting. What moves the number? The adoption or rejection of new maps by state legislatures, court rulings that block or uphold maps, and the approach of the 2026 midterms all feed into the market. The formal resolution date is Nov 3, 2026. Any definitive state action or judicial decision before then could shift the probability.
FAQ
What defines a 'new congressional map'?
It must be formally adopted and enacted into law after the 2024 congressional elections and used in the 2026 midterms, without being enjoined or struck down.
What happens if a map is challenged in court but later upheld?
A map that is temporarily stayed pending appeal and later upheld will qualify if it is ultimately in effect for the 2026 midterms.
Who determines if a state uses a new map?
Resolution relies on official state information and a consensus of credible reporting.
What if no new map is adopted?
The market resolves to 'No' for that state.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice