Sep 11, 2026
Probability fell from 96.0% to 86.9% — a 9.1-point move over the past day.
Which streaming service will win the most Emmys? Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price HBO Max's chance of winning the most Emmys at 87.5% as the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards approach. The market, last updated 3 min ago, reflects shifting expectations as awards season progresses.
50.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will another streaming service win the most Emmys?
Updated · Volume $110.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Apple TV win the most Emmys? | 87.5% | -0.3 |
| Will another streaming service win the most Emmys? | 50.0% | 0.0 |
| Will HBO Max win the most Emmys? | 10.3% | -0.9 |
| Will Netflix win the most Emmys? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Peacock win the most Emmys? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Prime Video win the most Emmys? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Disney+ win the most Emmys? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Paramount+ win the most Emmys? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Hulu win the most Emmys? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
The field of competitors offers a nuanced picture. The chance that any service other than HBO Max prevails is 50.0%, making it close to a coin flip. Among alternatives, Netflix commands 10.3%—unlikely—and Apple TV is effectively ruled out at 0.1%. The remaining services barely register.
Context
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 95.9% to 93.0% — a 2.9-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 84.5% to 95.0% — a 10.4-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability rose from 15.6% to 95.6% — a 80.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 11.7% to 50.6% — a 39.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 66.5% to 77.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Traders are assessing which streaming platform will collect the most statuettes at the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. The current price implies HBO Max is strongly favored, with contracts changing hands at 87.5%. Volume over the past day reached $110.3K. The contest hinges on how many Emmys each platform’s original programming can secure. An Emmy is attributed to the service that releases the winning show, even if the award goes to an individual actor or director. For instance, a lead-actor win for an HBO Max series counts toward the platform’s total. If two streamers finish with the same number of awards, the tie is resolved in favor of the company that appears first in alphabetical order—a rule that could influence trading if a tight race develops. Resolution also accounts for the possibility of a delayed or incomplete ceremony. Should the Academy not distribute all trophies by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market settles based on the awards announced up to that point. If no Emmys at all are handed out by that cutoff, the contract resolves to “Other.” Such safeguards keep the market focused on the competitive dynamics without getting derailed by scheduling unknowns.
FAQ
How does the market determine which streaming service an Emmy counts for?
The award is attributed to the service that officially distributes the winning show. Even individual acting or technical awards count toward the platform’s total if the show streams on that service.
What happens if two services tie for the most Emmys?
The market resolves in favor of the service that appears first in alphabetical order. This rule is applied to the tied services only, not as a ranking method for all participants.
Is there a deadline for the market to resolve?
Yes. If all 78th Primetime Emmy Awards are not awarded by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market uses the Emmys awarded up to that point. If no Emmys have been awarded by then, the outcome “Other” wins.
Where does the market get its data for resolution?
The primary source is the Television Academy’s official information, including its website and the live broadcasts of the Creative Arts Emmys and the Primetime Emmy Awards. Credible news reports may also be used if needed.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice