Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 91.5% to 100.0% — a 8.5-point move over the past day.
Alexander Volkanovski's Next Opponent: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price a 100.0% chance that Movsar Evloev will be Alexander Volkanovski's next UFC opponent, with the market last updated 13 d ago.
100.0%
Will Movsar Evloev fight Alexander Volkanovski next?
Updated · Volume $1.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Movsar Evloev fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 100.0% | — |
| Will Aljamain Sterling fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Arnold Allen fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Jean Silva fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Lerone Murphy fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Yair Rodriguez fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Diego Lopes fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.1% | — |
| Will Fighter D fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter F fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter I fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter N fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter E fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter H fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter M fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter L fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter C fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter G fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter J fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter K fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will another fighter fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
| Will Fighter O fight Alexander Volkanovski next? | 0.0% | — |
Movsar Evloev leads the field at 100.0%. Aljamain Sterling sits at an outside chance, while the remaining names are all long shots.
Context
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 91.5% to 99.6% — a 8.1-point move over the past day.
Aug 9, 2026
Probability rose from 78.5% to 87.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 60.0% to 85.5% — a 25.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 54.0% to 94.5% — a 40.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 6, 2026
Probability fell from 93.0% to 57.0% — a 36.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability fell from 89.5% to 56.0% — a 33.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 59.0% to 84.5% — a 25.5-point move over the past day.
Jul 19, 2026
Probability rose from 39.5% to 42.5% — a 3.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 18, 2026
Probability fell from 52.5% to 42.5% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
The contract's most likely outcome — a fight with Movsar Evloev — currently trades at 100.0%. Over the timeline, it has ranged from 50.0% to 100.0%. Trading volume stands at $1.2M. This market resolves according to the next UFC fighter that Alexander Volkanovski is officially announced to face in a bout. An official announcement must come from the UFC and include a scheduled date. Unofficial speculation, or announcements without a confirmed date, will not count. If Volkanovski is announced to fight any non-listed fighter, or if no qualifying announcement is made by Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to “Other”. The primary resolution source is the UFC's official website. Only formal fight bookings move the probability. The market's hard deadline is Jan 1, 2027; absent a qualifying announcement by then, it settles to Other. Outside of that, no other events—injuries, rumors, or callouts—directly shift the odds. Just the UFC's own dated confirmations on ufc.com matter.
FAQ
What counts as an official announcement?
Only a UFC release that names Volkanovski's next opponent with a scheduled date. Rumors, news reports, or fighter tweets don't qualify.
Does the fight need to actually happen?
No. The market resolves the moment an official, dated announcement occurs—even if the bout later falls through.
What if Volkanovski announces his retirement?
The market still looks for a qualifying fight announcement up to the deadline. A retirement with no bout booked would lead to “Other” at close.
What time does the market close?
Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59 PM Eastern Time. After that, no new announcements apply.
What happens if multiple opponents get announced at once?
The first opponent named in the official release would trigger resolution, provided they are among the listed outcomes; if not, it's “Other”.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice