Aug 21, 2026
Probability rose from 3.5% to 32.3% — a 28.8-point move over the past day.
Who Will Announce a 2028 Presidential Run Before 2027? Prediction Market Odds
Prediction markets price Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027 at 12.5%.
12.5%0.0 pts 24h
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
Updated · Volume $1.1M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 12.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Jon Stewart announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 9.7% | 0.0 |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy announce a presidential run before 2027? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 9.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 9.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 9.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Don Lemon announce a presidential run before 2027? | 9.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Glenn Youngkin announce a presidential run before 2027? | 8.8% | -0.1 |
| Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027? | 7.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Matt Gaetz announce a presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Raphael Warnock announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mark Kelly announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 7.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | 7.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Brian Kemp announce a presidential run before 2027? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will J.B. Pritzker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 6.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | 6.3% | -0.3 |
| Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027? | 6.0% | -1.3 |
| Will Cory Booker announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will George Clooney announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Josh Shapiro announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Mark Cuban announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 5.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Beto O’Rourke announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 4.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Rand Paul announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Candace Owens announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Gina Raimondo announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 4.2% | +0.2 |
| Will Kristi Noem announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Erika Kirk announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.0% | +0.2 |
| Will Nikki Haley announce a presidential run before 2027? | 4.0% | 0.0 |
| Will John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027? | 3.9% | -0.1 |
| Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2027? | 3.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Greg Abbott announce a presidential run before 2027? | 3.7% | +0.1 |
| Will Oprah Winfrey announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 3.5% | +2.7 |
| Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027? | 3.3% | -0.2 |
| Will Elon Musk announce a presidential run before 2027? | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 3.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Wes Moore announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 3.1% | 0.0 |
| Will John Fetterman announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 3.0% | -0.2 |
| Will Mike Pence announce a presidential run before 2027? | 2.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.9% | 0.0 |
| Will LeBron James announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.8% | +0.1 |
| Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Liz Cheney announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.7% | +0.2 |
| Will Josh Hawley announce a presidential run before 2027? | 2.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.5% | -0.3 |
| Will Michelle Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.4% | -0.1 |
| Will Byron Donalds announce a presidential run before 2027? | 2.3% | +1.3 |
| Will Kim Kardashian announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will MrBeast announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 2.3% | 0.0 |
| Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2027? | 2.1% | +0.1 |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard announce a presidential run before 2027? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jared Polis announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.9% | +0.1 |
| Will Roy Cooper announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.8% | +0.6 |
| Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.8% | 0.0 |
| Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027? | 1.7% | -0.1 |
| Will Tim Walz announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.6% | 0.0 |
| Will Barack Obama announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Chelsea Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.3% | +0.2 |
| Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 1.1% | -1.0 |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders announce a presidential run before 2027? | 0.7% | -0.2 |
| Will Andrew Yang announce a Presidential run before 2027? | 0.6% | +0.1 |
Context
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 7.0% to 21.0% — a 14.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 13, 2026
Probability rose from 3.6% to 34.5% — a 30.9-point move over the past day.
Aug 5, 2026
Probability rose from 9.5% to 29.5% — a 20.0-point move over the past day.
Jul 25, 2026
Probability rose from 6.4% to 25.9% — a 19.6-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 18, 2026
Probability rose from 2.5% to 13.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 71 tracked outcomes and $1.1M in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027, is priced at 12.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice