Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 62.0% to 52.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Who Will Be UFC Bantamweight Champion at End of 2026?
Prediction markets price Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 58.5%.
58.5%+1.5 pts 24h
Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $460.3K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 58.5% | +1.5 |
| Will Merab Dvalishvili be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 38.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Sean O'Malley be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.3% | -0.1 |
| Will Song Yadong be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Aiemann Zahabi be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will David Martinez be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Cory Sandhagen be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Marlon Vera be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Umar Nurmagomedov be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Mario Bautista be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Deiveson Figueiredo be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter D be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter A be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter C be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter B be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.5% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 31, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 51.0% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 58.5% to 62.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 54.0% to 63.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 53.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 56.5% to 61.5% — a 5.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 24, 2026
Probability rose from 42.5% to 57.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability rose from 35.0% to 44.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 23, 2026
Probability fell from 61.0% to 54.5% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 22, 2026
Probability fell from 60.0% to 58.0% — a 2.0-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $460.3K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Petr Yan be the UFC Bantamweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 58.5%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice