Aug 8, 2026
Probability rose from 44.0% to 55.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
UFC Flyweight Champion at 2026 End: Odds & Probability
Markets price Alexandre Pantoja's chances as close to a coin flip, at 51.5% to be the UFC Flyweight champion when the year closes.
51.5%+1.0 pts 24h
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $1.2M
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 51.5% | +1.0 |
| Will Joshua Van be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 47.5% | 0.0 |
| Will Manel Kape be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 2.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Asu Almabayev be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Amir Albazi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tim Elliott be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brandon Royval be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kyoji Horiguchi be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tatsuro Taira be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Brandon Moreno be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Steve Erceg be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter D be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter C be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Lone'er Kavanagh be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter B be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The market is finely balanced between Alexandre Pantoja and Joshua Van, while all other fighters are seen as long shots.
Context
Aug 7, 2026
Probability fell from 55.0% to 45.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 7, 2026
Probability rose from 40.5% to 53.0% — a 12.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 6, 2026
Probability rose from 41.5% to 54.5% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 3, 2026
Probability rose from 46.0% to 57.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Jul 30, 2026
Probability rose from 47.5% to 59.0% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
The contract on Pantoja has traded at 51.5% in recent sessions. Over the period tracked, it has moved between 30.5% and 57.0%. In the last day, it has shifted +1.0 pts,
The market resolves to the official UFC Flyweight champion as of December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET, according to UFC.com. Only official champions count; interim titleholders do not trigger a win. If the belt is vacant at the settlement time, the market will resolve to 'Other'. The key formal trigger is the passage of time to the resolution date Jan 1, 2027, as no interim checks or scheduled events are built into the contract's terms. The settlement solely depends on the UFC's official champion listing on that date and time.
FAQ
Who counts as the champion for this market?
Only the official UFC Flyweight champion as listed by the UFC on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Interim champions do not count.
What happens if the belt is vacant on the resolution date?
If there is no champion—whether the title is vacant or no bout has produced a holder—the market resolves to "Other."
When does this market resolve?
The settlement time is December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
Where does the resolution information come from?
The primary resolution source is the UFC’s official website (ufc.com/athletes).
Can a fighter who is not listed as an outcome still win?
Yes. The market includes a catch-all "Other" outcome that would resolve positively if a champion not among the named contenders holds the title at settlement.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice