UFC Heavyweight Champion 2026: Current Odds & Probability

Prediction markets price Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 69.0%.

69.0%+11.0 pts 24h

Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Updated · Volume $361.7K

8%37%65%94%Aug 21Aug 29Sep 5Sep 13Sep 20
OutcomeProbability24h
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?69.0%+11.0
Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?29.5%+5.0
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?1.8%+0.3
Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?1.4%-4.9
Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.8%-1.6
Will Ante Delija be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Jailton Almeida be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Tyrell Fortune be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Serghei Spivac be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Derrick Lewis be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Rizvan Kuniev be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.1%0.0
Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will another fighter be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Fighter F be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Fighter E be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.0%0.0
Will Fighter G be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?0.0%0.0

The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.

Context

Sep 20, 2026

Probability rose from 58.0% to 67.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 19, 2026

Probability fell from 70.0% to 58.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 19, 2026

Probability fell from 65.5% to 54.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 16, 2026

Probability fell from 74.5% to 63.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 15, 2026

Probability rose from 37.5% to 67.5% — a 30.0-point move over the past day.

Show earlier updates

Sep 14, 2026

Probability rose from 29.5% to 45.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.

Sep 10, 2026

Probability fell from 63.5% to 54.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 9, 2026

Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 8, 2026

Probability fell from 61.5% to 55.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.

Sep 7, 2026

Probability fell from 62.5% to 55.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.

This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.

This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $361.7K in total trading volume.

The most closely contested outcome, Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 69.0%.

Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice

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