Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 54.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
UFC Heavyweight Champion 2026: Current Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 56.0%.
56.0%-2.5 pts 24h
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $340.6K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 56.0% | -2.5 |
| Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 29.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 4.2% | -0.9 |
| Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Serghei Spivac be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.4% | 0.0 |
| Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tyrell Fortune be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Ante Delija be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rizvan Kuniev be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Derrick Lewis be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jailton Almeida be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter D be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.3% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 55.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 55.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 49.0% to 61.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 5, 2026
Probability rose from 42.0% to 54.0% — a 12.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability fell from 57.5% to 42.5% — a 15.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 3, 2026
Probability fell from 56.0% to 41.5% — a 14.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 53.0% to 63.0% — a 10.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability fell from 65.5% to 58.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $340.6K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 56.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice