Sep 20, 2026
Probability rose from 58.0% to 67.5% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
UFC Heavyweight Champion 2026: Current Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 69.0%.
69.0%+11.0 pts 24h
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $361.7K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 69.0% | +11.0 |
| Will Josh Hokit be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 29.5% | +5.0 |
| Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.8% | +0.3 |
| Will Alexander Volkov be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.4% | -4.9 |
| Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.8% | -1.6 |
| Will Ante Delija be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Marcin Tybura be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jailton Almeida be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Tyrell Fortune be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Curtis Blaydes be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Serghei Spivac be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Derrick Lewis be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Rizvan Kuniev be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Alex Pereira be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.6% of the total probability.
Context
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 70.0% to 58.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 19, 2026
Probability fell from 65.5% to 54.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 16, 2026
Probability fell from 74.5% to 63.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 15, 2026
Probability rose from 37.5% to 67.5% — a 30.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Sep 14, 2026
Probability rose from 29.5% to 45.5% — a 16.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 10, 2026
Probability fell from 63.5% to 54.0% — a 9.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 9, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 58.0% — a 3.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 8, 2026
Probability fell from 61.5% to 55.0% — a 6.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 7, 2026
Probability fell from 62.5% to 55.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $361.7K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 69.0%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice