Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 59.7% to 86.4% — a 26.7-point move over the past day.
UFC Welterweight Champion 2026: Odds & Probability
Prediction markets price Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026 at 91.8%.
91.8%-0.6 pts 24h
Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Updated · Volume $639.5K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 91.8% | -0.6 |
| Will Carlos Prates be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 6.4% | +1.1 |
| Will Michael Morales be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 1.5% | +0.1 |
| Will Ian Machado Garry be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.6% | -0.0 |
| Will Belal Muhammad be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Shavkat Rakhmonov be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Sean Brady be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Jack Della Maddalena be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Joaquin Buckley be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Kamaru Usman be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Gabriel Bonfim be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will Leon Edwards be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.1% | 0.0 |
| Will another fighter be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter D be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter C be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter E be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter B be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter F be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Fighter G be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026? | 0.0% | 0.0 |
The top 5 outcomes account for 99.7% of the total probability.
Context
Aug 27, 2026
Probability fell from 87.0% to 59.7% — a 27.3-point move over the past day.
Aug 17, 2026
Probability rose from 73.0% to 91.0% — a 18.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 16, 2026
Probability rose from 67.5% to 90.5% — a 23.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 14, 2026
Probability fell from 75.0% to 63.5% — a 11.5-point move over the past day.
This probability comes from live prices on prediction markets, where a contract's price equals the implied chance of the outcome. It updates continuously as trading occurs.
This market has 19 tracked outcomes and $639.5K in total trading volume.
The most closely contested outcome, Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026, is priced at 91.8%.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice