Sep 7, 2026
Probability rose from 79.5% to 88.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Will Vilgefortz die in The Witcher: Season 5? Odds & Probability
Markets price a 86.5% chance that Vilgefortz meets his end during The Witcher's fifth season. With several major characters at risk, traders see varying odds across the cast.
51.0%0.0 pts 24h
Will Emhyr die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
Updated · Volume $34.0K
| Outcome | Probability | 24h |
|---|---|---|
| Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 86.5% | +1.5 |
| Will Geralt of Rivia die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 84.0% | -0.5 |
| Will Yennefer of Vengerberg die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 81.0% | +3.5 |
| Will Regis die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 65.5% | -0.5 |
| Will Milva die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 54.5% | +0.5 |
| Will Emhyr die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 51.0% | 0.0 |
| Will Princess Cirilla die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 48.5% | +2.0 |
| Will Cahir die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 48.0% | +0.5 |
| Will Jaskier die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? | 47.0% | +0.5 |
While Vilgefortz is the clear frontrunner, markets assign a similarly high chance to Yennefer, and see Geralt and Regis as favored to survive; the remaining cast members are priced near tossup odds.
Context
Sep 6, 2026
Probability rose from 72.5% to 86.0% — a 13.5-point move over the past day.
Sep 4, 2026
Probability rose from 77.0% to 84.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 2, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 86.5% — a 9.0-point move over the past day.
Sep 1, 2026
Probability rose from 72.0% to 85.0% — a 13.0-point move over the past day.
Show earlier updates
Aug 31, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 85.0% — a 7.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 30, 2026
Probability rose from 74.0% to 84.5% — a 10.5-point move over the past day.
Aug 29, 2026
Probability rose from 77.5% to 88.5% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 28, 2026
Probability rose from 76.0% to 87.0% — a 11.0-point move over the past day.
Aug 27, 2026
Probability rose from 78.0% to 85.0% — a 7.0-point move over the past day.
The contract currently trades at 86.5%. It has ranged from 43.5% to 53.5% over the observed period. For a Yes resolution, Vilgefortz’s death must be either shown on screen or clearly confirmed through dialogue during the official Season 5 episodes. Deaths that are later reversed by revival still count, but flashbacks, dream sequences, or visions of a dead character do not. Ambiguous fates are treated as No. The market will settle after the final episode airs around Jun 30, 2027. Only what appears in the official Netflix episodes—including any post-credits scenes—can move the probability. Supplementary materials like comics or podcasts are irrelevant unless directly referenced in the show.
FAQ
What qualifies as a death in this market?
The death must be depicted on screen or unambiguously stated through dialogue, a funeral, or similar acknowledgment. Purely ambiguous outcomes resolve to No.
Do deaths that are later reversed still resolve Yes?
Yes. If a character dies and is subsequently revived, resurrected, or reanimated, the original death still counts.
How are flashbacks or dream sequences treated?
They are ignored. Only a death that occurs within the active timeline or dimension of Season 5 matters; visions of already-dead characters or pre-death flashbacks do not settle the contract.
When does the market resolve?
Resolution occurs after the release of the final episode of Season 5, based on everything shown in the official episodes—including any post-credits scenes.
Data: Polymarket · Methodology · Not financial advice